In September, copper cathode imports surged and are expected to remain high in October [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 2.649 million mt of copper cathode from January to September 2024, up 6.54% YoY. Among them, September imports were 322,500 mt, up 29.19% MoM, but down 1.71% YoY. From January to September, China exported a total of 419,000 mt of copper cathode, up 77.91% YoY. Among them, September exports were 16,000 mt, down 47.86% MoM and down 12.01% YoY.

In terms of imports, September copper cathode imports totaled 322,500 mt, up 29.19% MoM, but down 1.71% YoY. Among them, copper cathode imports from Africa totaled 129,000 mt, up 27.73% MoM, accounting for 40% of total imports. Copper cathode imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and the Republic of Congo all increased significantly. According to SMM, this growth mainly stemmed from increased local copper cathode production, which compensated for previous long-term contract gaps, leading to more copper cathode imports from Africa in September. Additionally, delayed shipments from South America in August arrived in September, combined with the scheduled September arrivals of long-term contracts, significantly increasing copper cathode imports from South America. Copper cathode from Chile and Peru increased by 28.24% and 50.4% MoM, respectively. Furthermore, copper cathode from Russia also saw a seasonal increase in September.

In terms of exports, September copper cathode exports were 16,000 mt, continuing to decline from August. Due to the complete closure of the export window, domestic refineries had no additional export volume except for fixed long-term contracts.

Looking ahead, according to SMM, copper cathode from Africa and South America will remain abundant in October. Additionally, a large amount of copper cathode will be transported back to China from LME Asian warehouses in October, so copper cathode imports are expected to continue to increase slightly. On the export side, the export window remains closed, and October exports are expected to mainly consist of long-term contracts, with little change from September.