Analysis of Nickel Ore Import Data for September 2024 [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported 4.566206741 million mt of nickel ore in September 2024, down 7.4% MoM and 23.5% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of 14%. Among these, sulfide ore was about 38,700 mt, down 15.5% MoM and 54.3% YoY; oxide ore was 4.4735 million mt, down 8.4% MoM and 23.9% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of 14.5%.

From the perspective of major import sources, imports from the Philippines were 4.3647 million mt, down 8.5% MoM and 20.99% YoY; imports from New Caledonia were 47,500 mt, marking the first import after two months; imports from Guatemala were 23,600 mt, up 123.72% MoM. There were no nickel ore imports from Australia in September.

The Philippines, China's main source of nickel ore imports, saw its low-grade nickel ore account for over 50% of the total exports to China, despite a slight decline from previous months. Medium-grade nickel ore accounted for nearly one-third of the total exports to China. Additionally, some high-grade nickel ore from the Philippines was released into the Chinese market during the month. Despite China remaining the main export destination for Philippine laterite nickel ore in September, the overall export volume of medium-grade nickel ore to Indonesia did not show a declining trend. The main reason for this was that the new progress of Indonesia's laterite nickel ore RKAB quota was not realized in the Indonesian market as expected in September. With the new progress of Indonesia's RKAB quota expected to be realized in October, the demand for Philippine nickel ore is expected to decline significantly, and the proportion of Philippine laterite nickel ore exported to China is expected to increase further in October. However, considering the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the recent typhoon weather, the shipping efficiency of Philippine laterite nickel ore may be limited, and some cargo ships may experience delays in arrival. Therefore, the total export volume of Philippine laterite nickel ore to China in October may fluctuate.