Foaming-grade EVA prices near 10,000 yuan, can PV-grade EVA prices continue to rebound? [SMM Analysis]

SMM, Oct 21: In 2024, EVA prices showed an initial decline followed by a rise. Since October, foaming-grade EVA prices increased from a pre-holiday low of 9,100 yuan/mt to a post-holiday average of 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt. PV-grade EVA prices also rose by 200-500 yuan/mt, with a recent settlement price of 10,000 yuan/mt from a producer in Jiangsu, up 4.7% MoM. Due to the recovery in downstream markets and supported demand, PV-grade EVA prices are expected to stabilize after rebounding. Looking ahead, November module production schedules remain high, and PV-grade EVA prices are expected to stabilize, potentially dropping to historical lows in Q1 2025.

During the September-October peak season, foaming-grade EVA demand was strong, but supply tightened significantly, with only 27,900 mt produced in September. Compared to August, foaming-grade EVA production fell by 44.5% MoM due to equipment maintenance and a shift to PV-grade EVA production. The September-October peak season is a high-demand period for foaming-grade EVA, and increased downstream demand led to a supply-demand imbalance, causing prices to rise sharply.

Foaming-grade EVA and PV-grade EVA prices influence each other. In August, increased demand for PV-grade EVA led to a price rebound, causing some foaming-grade EVA capacity to shift to PV-grade EVA in September, resulting in a shortage and price increase to 10,000 yuan/mt. The high prices in the foaming-grade EVA market attracted capacity originally planned for PV-grade EVA production in October, leading to lower-than-expected PV-grade EVA production and a potential price increase for PV-grade EVA, while foaming-grade EVA price increases may narrow followed by a slight price decline.

After hitting a low in Q1-Q3, PV-grade EVA prices rebounded, and current PV-grade EVA inventory is low. In 2024, supply remained high and increased from January to February, but actual module production was low, leading to a decrease in PV film operating rates and reduced EVA demand, causing inventory buildup. In March, module production schedules recovered, up 83.27% MoM, supporting downstream EVA demand. Although supply also increased by 13.8% MoM, the inventory buildup slowed. From April to July, petrochemical plants gradually reduced supply, starting an inventory reduction process. By August 2024, PV-grade EVA inventory was depleted. In September-October, supply and demand were in tight balance.

In 2024, prices peaked at 12,912 yuan/mt in March due to an 83.27% MoM increase in module production schedules and a significant rise in film and resin demand. PV-grade EVA prices continued to decline in June-July, falling below 9,100 yuan/mt due to lower demand and Q1 inventory digestion. Prices began to recover in August, with demand up 4.61% MoM and PV-grade EVA inventory depleted. In October, demand is expected to rise by 7.92% MoM, with prices continuing to increase.

In Q4, PV-grade EVA prices are expected to stabilize after rising, potentially reaching historical lows later. In October, EVA demand rose by 7.92% MoM, but supply remained unchanged, keeping supply and demand in tight balance. Inventory-wise, Q2-Q3 inventory reduction was completed, and current inventory levels are extremely low. Sentiment-wise, at the end of September, the market pre-sold a large number of orders due to the expectation of new capacity coming online, leading to a shortage of spot goods. Since the National Day holiday, rising prices of crude oil derivatives and positive stock market and futures have driven EVA prices up, but continued declines in downstream film prices may limit EVA price increases.

In November, overall supply and demand are expected to remain balanced, with prices stabilizing. November is still a traditional delivery period for modules, and production schedules are expected to be maintained, supporting downstream demand for film and EVA. On the supply side, new capacity is confirmed to produce LDPE in November, and the sharp increase in foaming-grade EVA prices is attracting some capacity originally planned for PV-grade EVA production, keeping supply stable.

In the second half of October, foaming-grade EVA market demand is improving, but supply is increasing, so foaming-grade EVA prices may consolidate at high levels. PV-grade EVA supply is tightening, demand remains high, and prices still have room to rise. If November module production schedules are maintained, downstream demand for PV film and EVA will be supported, and PV-grade EVA prices are expected to peak in early November before stabilizing. The price increase may narrow due to limited acceptance of high-priced goods downstream.