PV Glass Officially Enters Inventory Reduction Period; Accumulated High Inventory Causes Price Divergence in October [SMM Analysis]

As of October, the new order prices for glass are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (12.0-13.0 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (13.0-14.0 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (21.0-22.0 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (22.0-23.0 yuan/m²).

Currently, domestic PV glass prices are showing divergence, with mainstream quotations maintaining at 12.5 yuan/m². Some enterprises with slightly higher previous inventory have recently seen a slight price drop, aiming for quick sales.

Specifically, looking at the price trend, after the National Day holiday in October, domestic glass prices have temporarily remained stable. Top-tier enterprises saw a slight decrease in inventory at the end of September, which supported prices positively. Some second-tier enterprises followed the leading enterprises in pricing, so the overall market transaction focus in early October did not change much, continuing the price trend from September. This week, domestic module enterprises increased their procurement volume compared to the previous period, and new orders for October have been finalised. At this stage, due to varying inventory levels among domestic glass enterprises, some enterprises with higher inventory have slightly reduced prices recently to quickly reduce inventory. As a result, the low-end transaction price in the market has declined, but the transaction scale is limited, with priority given to large procurement volumes.

Regarding inventory, the glass industry inventory began to decrease in October, with both top-tier and second-tier enterprises experiencing varying degrees of reduction. The domestic supply-demand pattern has shifted to slightly tight supply, and glass inventory levels have started to decline. It is expected that by the end of October, glass inventory may fall below 30 days.

From the supply side, as of October, one kiln in Anhui province has undergone cold repair, involving a capacity of 650 mt/day. Recently, there have been fewer production line closures due to kiln blockages, slowing the rate of supply reduction.

In summary, SMM believes that prices will mainly remain stable in October. Once glass enterprises reduce their inventory to normal levels, the low prices in the glass market will slightly rise. However, the overall transaction focus in October will prioritize stability. In November, glass costs will slightly increase, and there will be a sentiment of price rise. However, price adjustments will still depend on the inventory situation after the supply-demand balance in October, with almost no possibility of a price drop.