SMM Analysis On China September Light Rare Earths Production And October Forecast

In September 2024, domestic production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy both increased MoM. The main increase in Pr-Nd oxide production was in Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong, while the increase in Pr-Nd alloy production was mainly in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia.

According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of downstream magnetic material companies increased, and the seasonal effect led to stronger stocking intentions from buyers. Driven by downstream demand, upstream production also increased. However, due to relatively tight supply at the mining end, the increase in oxide production was not as significant as that of the alloy. Most of the increase was concentrated in scrap recycling companies, where the operating rate significantly increased as the degree of inversion lessened.

The rise in demand led to a noticeable increase in inquiry and purchasing activity in the Pr-Nd market during this period. Holders were bullish and reluctant to sell, causing low-priced Pr-Nd sources to tighten quickly. Overall, Pr-Nd prices showed an upward trend in September.