SMM Analysis On China September Refined Bismuth Production And October Forecast

According to SMM's survey of bismuth producers nationwide, China's refined bismuth production in September 2024 saw a significant decrease of 9.04% MoM compared to August 2024. This marks the first decline since production began its upward trend in April. From the producers' perspective, with bismuth prices stabilizing around 90,000 yuan/mt and raw material shortages re-emerging, the market generally expected the September production drop. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 24 surveyed companies, six saw a significant decrease in production in September, while four experienced a notable increase, leading to an overall decline in bismuth ingot production compared to the previous month. However, some market participants still indicate that the supply of bismuth raw materials is expected to remain tight, making raw material shortages a potential recurring factor affecting future production. Therefore, SMM expects the national refined bismuth production in October 2024 to remain stable, though a slight decline cannot be ruled out.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing national refined bismuth production data. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey includes 24 producers across eight provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a coverage rate of over 99%.