With adjustments in overseas interest rate cut expectations and domestic macro sentiment and post-holiday aluminum inventory accumulation below expectations, aluminum futures jumped initially and then pulled back [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,600 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,625 yuan/mt and a low of 20,505 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,550 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.7%. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,655.5/mt, reached a high of $2,664.5/mt, a low of $2,564.5/mt, and closed at $2,570.5/mt, down $84/mt, a decrease of 3.17%.

Summary: Macro front, US non-farm payrolls data exceeded market expectations, significantly reducing the market's expectation of a US Fed interest rate cut. The US dollar index fluctuated upward. Domestically, the content of "systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies" theme meeting was slightly below market expectations, cooling macro sentiment but overall remaining positive. Fundamentally, domestic aluminum supply slightly increased, and production cut expectations in Yunnan decreased. Cost side, spot alumina remains in tight balance, making domestic aluminum costs more likely to rise than fall. Demand side, during the domestic holiday, most large and medium downstream processing enterprises maintained normal operations, and post-holiday demand in sectors like new energy and photovoltaics continues to perform well, boosting future aluminum market consumption expectations. Overall, in the context of expected global financial easing and stable fundamentals, the aluminum market is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. Future attention should be paid to post-holiday domestic consumption conditions and changes in international macro sentiment.