SMM pre-holiday review and October outlook for PV industry chain

SMM, Oct 8: Polysilicon: Mainstream prices for N-type polysilicon were 40-44 yuan/kg, and dense polysilicon was 35-38 yuan/kg. During the National Day holiday, most polysilicon manufacturers maintained normal production, with no temporary holiday plans for leading manufacturers. In October, there were no plans for old manufacturers to resume production. Due to increased production of granular polysilicon and some capacity ramp-up, polysilicon production slightly increased MoM, expected to exceed 130,000 mt in October.

Wafers: Pre-holiday, domestic N-type 18Xmm wafers were 1.06-1.1 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R wafer prices rose to 1.25-1.3 yuan/piece. N-type wafers continued to decline, while large sizes remained relatively stable due to demand structure. During the October holiday, there were no significant holiday plans in the wafer market, and transactions proceeded normally. Some first and second-tier enterprises even planned to negotiate slight price reductions during the holiday. October wafer production schedules varied, with total production remaining roughly the same as in September.

Solar cells: Approaching the National Day holiday, some cell production sites arranged holidays. In October, cell makers with Topcon production plans took 4-7 days off (a few second and third-tier battery makers stopped production for the entire month), while PERC production sites began large-scale reductions. Integrated and non-integrated cell enterprises with multiple sites arranged holidays, while some single-site cell enterprises maintained current operating rates without holiday plans. In October, Chinese enterprises' cell production was 49.48 GW (domestic 47.99 GW), P-type 4.16 GW (domestic 0), and N-type 45.32 GW (domestic 43.83 GW). Total battery production decreased by 6.98% MoM, P-type by 38.4% MoM, and N-type by 2.41% MoM. In October, cell production was less than module production, officially entering the inventory reduction phase.

Modules: Module companies delivered normally during the National Day holiday, with most maintaining normal production. Some second and third-tier factories arranged holidays of 4-7 days based on orders, while a few with poor orders extended holidays, affecting production. In September, inventory was somewhat reduced. Although overall demand growth was not significant, module companies entered a shipment surge phase in Q4. In October, due to significant production increases by top-tier enterprises, module production continued to rise, with a nearly 8% MoM increase.

PV glass: During the National Day holiday, domestic glass furnaces operated normally, with an overall operating load of about 65%. Although inventory levels were relatively high recently, with domestic furnace cold repairs and closures, supply pressure is expected to ease. Operations are expected to remain stable during the holiday, with some enterprises starting a new round of cold repairs and production cuts afterward.

Quartz sand: Recently, domestic supply of quartz sand began to decline, mainly due to a gradual decrease in crucible production. Some enterprises had operating rates below 20%. Additionally, after crucible prices fell, enterprises faced significant cost pressures, reducing willingness to buy sand. Demand is expected to continue decreasing. During the holiday, sand company operations may have decreased due to reduced orders.