Demand Support Rapidly Collapsed, Crucible Prices Plummeted After the Holiday [SMM Analysis]

As of now, the current SMM domestic market price for 36-inch PV quartz crucibles is 9,200-10,500 yuan each, with an average price of 9,850 yuan each. This represents a drop of nearly 3,000 yuan each compared to before the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a significant price decline and further potential for decreases.

Recently, around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the domestic PV crucible market experienced another shift, with companies significantly lowering their quotes. As of now, SMM has learned that the price of 36-inch PV quartz crucibles has dropped to 9,200-10,500 yuan each, with an average decrease of 2,900 yuan each. The price of 33-inch PV quartz crucibles has dropped to 7,500-8,500 yuan each, with an average decrease of 2,500 yuan each. According to SMM, the reasons behind this price drop are twofold: on one hand, since May, domestic crucible operating rates have remained relatively high. Although some companies have reduced their operating rates to below 50%, overall supply remains relatively excessive. On the other hand, demand from the downstream PV wafer sector began to weaken in September, with expected PV wafer production schedules falling below 50GW, leading to a significant reduction in demand. Additionally, PV wafer companies have not yet exhausted their crucible inventories, resulting in low purchase willingness. These factors combined have led to the significant price drop in crucibles, with intense market competition.

Regarding future price predictions, SMM believes that quartz crucible prices will continue to decline, but the extent of the drop is expected to be limited. The main reason is that although crucible companies have recently started to lower their quotes, the cost of raw materials like quartz sand has not yet begun to fall. In the near term, crucible companies will focus on pressing down the prices of sand suppliers. Once the cost space decreases, crucible prices will have room to fall. It is expected that the price of 36-inch crucibles will continue to decline, but the drop will be smaller and the frequency of declines will slow down.