In July, Indonesia's stainless steel exports increased by approximately 7.73% MoM. Italy's manufacturing sector showed a remarkable recovery at low levels [SMM Analysis]

In July 2024, Indonesia exported about 100,600 mt of stainless steel to China, an increase of approximately 29,900 mt from the previous month, up 42.26% MoM, but down 29.92% YoY.

By country, among the top ten countries and regions for Indonesia's exports in July, only Taiwan, Turkey, and Thailand saw a decline in export volumes, while other countries experienced an increase compared to June. Notably, China and Italy showed significant growth in export volumes. Overall, the total volume of stainless steel exports recovered to May levels, with subtle changes in the flow to various countries. In July, domestic stainless steel spot prices fluctuated downward within a narrow range, market sentiment weakened, but raw material prices continued to fluctuate upward, supporting spot prices and limiting the downside for stainless steel. In July, Indonesia's nickel ore HPM declined, but the rising premium offset the HPM drop, supporting high-grade NPI prices to fluctuate at high levels. Domestic stainless steel plant profits narrowed, while Indonesia's advantage in nickel ore resources and integrated stainless steel capacity expanded its cost advantage over domestic production. The profit from reprocessing imported Indonesian stainless steel in China was favorable, with the total import volume increasing by approximately 29,900 mt from June. Due to anti-dumping policies on Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel, Indonesia's exports to Taiwan have exceeded those to mainland China for two consecutive months. Currently, using Taiwan as a springboard for exports to other countries is a key strategy for Chinese and Indonesian stainless steel to enter overseas markets. In other countries, exports to Italy in July showed a significant increase, surpassing 30,000 mt, up approximately 206.35% MoM, reaching levels close to June 2021. Italy's manufacturing PMI in July was 47.4, still below the 50 mark, but up 1.7 percentage points MoM. Italy's manufacturing sector showed a low-level recovery, and it is expected that with the stimulation of the NEV industry and green technology innovation, manufacturing activity will gradually increase, maintaining growth in stainless steel consumption from China and Indonesia. Overall, Indonesia's stainless steel exports are still mainly to China, Taiwan, India, and Vietnam, while other countries are in a phase of consumption adjustment. It is expected that with the increase in global stainless steel trade barriers, there may be new changes in export flows in the future.

By type, in July, stainless steel scrap exports were about 4,500 mt, up approximately 29.97% MoM, up 45.9% YoY; stainless steel billet exports were about 196,900 mt, up approximately 62.74% MoM, up 68.52% YoY; stainless steel hot-rolled exports were about 151,400 mt, down approximately 19.76% MoM, up 31.45% YoY; stainless steel cold-rolled exports were about 48,200 mt, down approximately 17.73% MoM, down 60.41% YoY; stainless steel wire rod exports were about 67.38 mt, up approximately 1114.05% MoM, up 516.3% YoY.