【SMM Analysis】 "September Peak Season is Here" Prices Rebound: A Review of This Week's Lithium Carbonate Spot Price Trends (2024.09.09-09.13)

This week (2024.09.09-2024.09.13), spot lithium carbonate prices reversed their decline and increased. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price rose from 72,107 yuan/mt to 73,723 yuan/mt, an increase of 1,616 yuan/mt. The low end of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,300 yuan/mt to 72,600 yuan/mt, the high end rose from 74,200 yuan/mt to 76,000 yuan/mt, and the average price went up from 72,250 yuan/mt to 74,300 yuan/mt, an increase of 2,050 yuan/mt. The low end of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased from 67,100 yuan/mt to 69,300 yuan/mt, the high end rose from 69,000 yuan/mt to 71,000 yuan/mt, and the average price went up from 68,050 yuan/mt to 70,150 yuan/mt, an increase of 2,100 yuan/mt. This week's price trend shows a significant upward movement in spot lithium carbonate prices.

This week, frequent news of production cuts at lithium salt smelters in a certain region significantly impacted market sentiment. The most-traded contract in the futures market surged to a high of 79,800 yuan/mt, an increase of about 7,000 yuan/mt. With frequent positive news, upstream lithium salt smelters raised their quotations accordingly. However, for downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers, the current price level is not suitable for procurement. Although lithium carbonate prices are on the rise, the actual transaction situation in the spot lithium carbonate market is not optimistic. Currently, more futures and spot traders hold a bullish attitude, and trading is frequent in the futures market.

According to an SMM survey, as of today, the reported production cuts in a certain region have temporarily only reduced production at the mine end and will not significantly affect the total domestic production of lithium carbonate in September. With stable supply and growing demand, spot lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. However, considering the cumulative domestic inventory of lithium carbonate, the supply-demand surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, which will somewhat hinder the current upward trend in lithium carbonate prices.

Overall, in the short term, driven by downstream demand, lithium carbonate prices are relatively optimistic. Entering October, as demand gradually weakens, lithium carbonate prices are expected to have room to fall.