Rare Earth Prices Jumped Initially and Then Pull Back Amid Intense Back-and-Forth Negotiations Between Upstream and Downstream [SMM Analysis]

Entering September, with the listing prices of rare earths released by China Northern Rare Earth up MoM, market confidence was greatly boosted. Meanwhile, news of customs clearance issues for auxiliary materials in Myanmar spread rapidly, exacerbating the already tight supply of Myanmar minerals, leading to a rapid increase in rare earth oxide prices. As of September 9, the price of Pr-Nd oxide had risen by 8.6% compared to August 30, dysprosium oxide by about 9%, and terbium oxide by an astonishing 15.5%.

Against the backdrop of rapidly rising rare earth prices, the order situation for downstream magnetic material companies did not meet expectations. Some magnetic material companies reported that since entering September, end-user order volumes had not significantly increased, despite frequent positive news from upstream and continuous price hikes from holders. However, this also led to a growing market fear of high prices.

Starting from the afternoon of September 9, due to the low purchase willingness of downstream buyers, reduced shipments from traders fearing high prices, and the comprehensive impact of large producers' bidding for metal products, rare earth prices began to pull back. Even so, the quotes from upstream separation plants remained relatively firm, resulting in a slow decline in rare earth prices. Under these circumstances, SMM expects that rare earth prices will gradually stabilize in the future.