Expectations of US Fed Rate Cut Strengthen Again, Future Supply May See Increase [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 9: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,330 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,365 yuan/mt and a low of 19,095 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,110 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt or 1.04%. Last Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,384/mt, hit a high of $2,394/mt and a low of $2,340/mt, and closed at $2,341.5/mt, down $36.5/mt or 1.53%.
Summary: On the macro side, the US Fed's September rate cut is almost a certainty, and China continues its efforts to boost consumption. On the fundamentals side, recent supply has been relatively stable. Demand is gradually shifting to peak season, with domestic spot market transactions improving, and consumption beginning to recover. Aluminum destocking trend may have appeared, mainly driven by positive fundamentals; however, the market is concerned about the potential increase in supply in the fourth quarter, leading to insufficient confidence among longs. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with ongoing attention needed on macroeconomic changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.