Demand Improves as Peak Season Arrives, Inventory Turning Point May Have Appeared [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 3: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,505 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,580 yuan/mt and a low of 19,485 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,565 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt, or 0.08%. On Monday, LME aluminum opened at $2,449.5/mt, hit a high of $2,456.5/mt and a low of $2,411/mt, and closed at $2,424/mt, down $22/mt, or 0.90%.
Summary: On the macro side, the US July PCE data met expectations, cooling rate cut expectations. On the fundamentals side, recent disturbances such as power rationing have not had a substantial impact on aluminum production, keeping the supply side relatively stable. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has arrived, consumption is gradually recovering, and the inventory turning point may have appeared. It is expected that aluminum prices will still have upside potential in the short term, with continued attention needed on macro changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.