According to customs data, China's imports of copper cathode in July decreased by 3.5% MoM to 276,000 mt. SMM country-specific import data shows that in July, China imported 187,100 mt from major overseas non-registered copper cathode producing countries, accounting for 67.80% of the total imports.
Observing the proportion of non-registered copper cathode imports in July, the Democratic Republic of Congo remains the top import source, and the preference for non-registered sources produced there continues to rise among downstream users in China.
Regarding import profitability, SHFE copper import contracts in June continued to incur losses, affecting July import data, and the quantity of non-registered copper cathode coming to China also decreased accordingly. Meanwhile, after July, concerns about the Fair Competition Review Regulations in the secondary copper market led to a reduction in copper scrap shipments, gradually benefiting copper cathode consumption. Additionally, as copper prices declined, copper stocks began to deplete significantly. The market focus on non-registered sources further increased, and the price spread between non-registered and registered copper sources continued to narrow.
Looking ahead, it is expected that in August, imports will decrease due to logistics issues, and the arrivals of non-registered sources will also be limited. Against the backdrop of a weakening substitution effect of copper scrap, domestic trade prices for non-registered sources will continue to rise, further reducing the price spread with registered sources. If the arrivals do not increase MoM in September, the price of non-registered sources may continue to converge with registered sources to within 50 yuan/mt.
