SMM Analysis Of PV module In July And Forecast For August

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in July was approximately 46.8GW, down 0.9GW from the previous month, a MoM decrease of 1.9%. Compared to the same period last year, the increase was about 4.1%. From January to July 2024, China's cumulative PV module production was approximately 325.7GW, up by 61.7GW YoY, an increase of about 23.4%.

The demand for modules in July has not significantly improved. Although several centralized procurement delivery orders in the domestic market have driven demand, the shipping momentum in overseas markets has slowed down. Europe has also entered the summer break period, causing project procurement progress to stagnate. In July, the actual output of some module companies was lower than expected, leading them to reduce production to avoid inventory accumulation. Integrated module manufacturers, in particular, have been cautious in adjusting their operating rates due to ongoing losses. Later, module manufacturers attempted to secure orders through low-price strategies, but the actual order volume remained insufficient. Some companies chose to accept only outsourcing orders, and the number of manufacturers halting production increased.

The PV module production for August are expected to reach 48.5GW, an increase of 1.7GW MoM, representing a growth of approximately 3.6%. Compared to the same period last year, this is a decrease of about 8.6%. Due to the overall poor visibility of order demand, the production of various companies diverged. With the peak delivery season in H2 approaching, some companies have significantly increased their operating rates due to the rise in the number of orders to be delivered. Most companies, considering the volume of orders on hand and inventory pressure, have chosen to maintain stable operating rates or make slight reductions. Among them, the production proportion of N-type modules in August further increased to 89%. Since July, over 90% of the module selections by downstream end-users have been N-type modules, and some centralised procurement projects have stopped purchasing P-type modules. Therefore, module companies are actively adjusting the production ratio of P-type and N-type modules, with some even choosing to shut down P-type module production lines. The production proportion of N-type modules for leading companies has approached 90%.