Import window opened, zinc concentrate imports slightly increased in June [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest customs data, in June 2024, imported zinc concentrate was 269,500 mt, up 1.04% MoM (2,700 mt), down 31% YoY. From January to June, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate was 1.7151 million mt, down 24.71% YoY.

By country, in June 2024, the top three countries for import volume were Eritrea (52,500 mt, 19.47%), Australia (49,400 mt, 18.31%), and Peru (38,300 mt, 14.23%). The increase in imports from Eritrea, South Africa, and Mexico was significant, while the inflow from Peru, Kazakhstan, and Chile also increased to varying degrees.

SMM believes that the slight increase in zinc concentrate imports in June is due to the following reasons:

1. The SHFE/LME price ratio rose, opening the import window for domestic zinc mines at the beginning of June, providing an opportunity for imported ores to flow in;

2. The domestic mine shortage trend continued, and the domestic refined zinc production in June exceeded expectations. Under the demand for raw materials from smelters, the import volume of zinc concentrate slightly increased.

Although the zinc mine import window opened in June, the import TCs still did not have an advantage, and smelters still favoured purchasing domestic ores. Therefore, the improvement in the import level of ores in June was not significant. Looking into July, the zinc mine import window remains open. However, many domestic smelters plan to undergo maintenance in July, reducing the demand for raw materials. Additionally, there are overseas mine maintenance activities in July. Under the influence of multiple factors, zinc mine imports in July may continue to be low.