Ocean freight soared. How will the magnesium ingot market perform in the future? [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, in April 2024, China's magnesium ingot exports were 18,769 mt, down 38.1% MoM, up 43.2% YoY, with cumulative exports up 39.4% YoY.

In terms of export countries, the main export destinations for domestic magnesium ingots in April 2024 were the Netherlands, India, Canada, South Korea, and Japan, accounting for about 68% of the total export volume. The export volume to the Netherlands was approximately 5,996 mt, accounting for 32%, up 96.9% YoY; exports to India were 2,003 mt, accounting for 12%, up 43.1% YoY; exports to Canada were 1,663 mt, accounting for 9%, up 111% YoY; exports to South Korea were 1,545 mt, accounting for 8%, up 35.2% YoY; and exports to Japan were 1,475 mt, accounting for 8%, up 24.4% YoY.

Among other exported magnesium products, China exported 7,864 mt of magnesium alloy in April 2024, down 21.71% MoM and 16.9% YoY. In April 2024, China exported 7,732 mt of magnesium powder, down 17.69% MoM but up 42.13% YoY. Overall, the export volume of magnesium products in April 2024 significantly decreased compared to March. There are two main reasons for the reduction in export volume: first, the price factor. The sharp rise in magnesium ingot prices in April made it impossible for traders, who had taken low-price orders with a speculative mindset, to deliver on time, forcing them to apply for delivery extensions. Second, overseas demand declined in April. The reason behind this is that the export volume of magnesium ingots reached 30,318 mt in March, up 71% MoM. Overseas customers overstocked at low prices, which overdrew the demand for magnesium ingots in the overseas market in April, leading to a decrease in order volume.

The prices of raw materials, ferrosilicon and coal, have both risen, providing strong cost support. The sentiment among magnesium ingot smelting enterprises has gradually diverged. Some enterprises, considering the continuous rise in production costs, started to actively accumulate inventory, showing a strong reluctance to sell. On the other hand, some enterprises, affected by the soaring ocean freight, hold a pessimistic view on future magnesium prices and are more eager to sell. However, due to cost support and the low inventory levels of magnesium ingot, even if the market price of magnesium ingots shows slight weakness, the extent will be very limited.