The Shanghai Futures Exchange will not conduct night trading on April 30 due to the Labour Day holiday, and will resume normal trading on May 6. Some overseas exchanges will also be closed on May 1. The Federal Reserve will hold its May interest rate meeting this week. In terms of macro data, the key data due this week include China's official manufacturing PMI in April, the eurozone's annual CPI rate in April, the US unemployment rate in April, and the US non-farm payrolls in April after seasonal adjustment.
LME lead stocks fell by 4,525 mt last week, reaching 266,950 mt. The decline in stocks caused LME lead prices to continue its strong trend and set a new high in five months. The contango of LME cash to the three-month contract stood at $31.38/mt as of April 25. This means that the decline in lead inventories was not driven by an improvement in consumption, but the tight ore supply may keep lead prices strong in the short term. LME lead prices are expected to run between $2,185-2,275/mt this week.
There will be only 2 trading days on the SHFE this week due to the Labour Day holiday. Maintenances at primary and secondary lead smelters, especially the reduced supply of delivery brands, will keep lead prices rangebound at highs. Meanwhile, the supply of lead concentrate and battery scrap is tight, and the cost of lead smelters is also conducive to lead prices. The most active SHFE lead contract prices may move between 17,000-17,600 yuan/mt this week. Some downstream companies plan to close during the Labour Day holiday. The market need to pay attention to the accumulated inventory of lead ingots after the Labour Day holiday.
The spot prices in China are expected to move between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt. In terms of primary lead, many smelters conducted maintenance, and the big price spread between futures contracts and spot cargoes drove deliveries to warehouses, limiting available spot cargoes. Spot premiums will remain high. The supply of battery scrap is tight. Secondary lead smelters continued to cut output. But after the lead price rose, the profits of secondary lead improved. In this scenario, secondary refined lead may be sold with discounts. Some companies are planning to close for the Labour Day holiday, and consumption will weaken. Downstream pre-holiday stockpiling has been weak.
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