Domestic positive comments and supply concerns push copper prices to an 18-year high [SMM copper morning comment]

LME copper prices opened at $9804/mt and closed at $9874.5/mt last Friday, a rise of 1.35%, with the low-end of $9793.5/mt and the high-end of $9913.5/mt. Trading volume was 34,000 lots, and open interest stood at 335,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2102 contract prices opened at 79700 yuan/mt and closed at 80080 yuan/mt last Friday evening, up 1.39%, with the high-end of 80170 yuan/mt and the low-end of 79450 yuan/mt. Trading volumes stood at 97,000 lots and open interest stood at 213,000 lots. On the macro level, Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, recently stated at a press conference held by the State Information Office that a series of monetary policies implemented earlier this year are gradually taking effect. There is still room for monetary policy in the future. The next step will be to closely observe the policy effects, economic recovery and goal achievement. At the same time, there were many positive remarks during the press conference and the recent World Bank Development Committee and IMFC meetings, which pushed copper prices higher. In addition, concerns about copper supply have increased, and driven by large-scale purchases by funds, SHFE copper has hit a new high since 2006. The increasingly tense geopolitical conflicts have also played a certain role in raising copper prices. In terms of fundamentals, from the supply side, as the export window opens, many domestic smelters have increased their export efforts, which may lead to a certain reduction in supply. In terms of consumption, copper prices hit an 18-year high, and downstream consumption is expected to be suppressed again due to financial pressure. On the whole, copper mines in many places have been reported to have stopped production recently. At the same time, some smelters in the Congo-Zambia region are facing suspension of production due to the hydropower crisis. Supply concerns may ferment again, and copper prices are expected to remain high.