Cobalt Price Review & Forecast

Refined cobalt

Refined cobalt prices rose slightly and then decreased in the week ending March 21. Production remains steady, but low smelter inventories lead to a tight supply situation. Demand in the usual high-demand season of March and April is delayed, with few market transactions, mainly driven by deliveries to the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. Market dynamics were initially unsettled due to a production issue but stabilized after a quick resolution, normalizing spot prices.

Cobalt intermediate products

Cobalt intermediate product prices remained unchanged in the week ending March 21. Shipment delays are causing a limited availability of spot supplies, leading to a tighter circulation of goods. High raw material costs are stalling downstream purchases, while high cobalt salt prices are leading some companies to consider cobalt intermediates for production, which could spur demand. Recent customs data indicate a rise in imports for January and February, suggesting a better supply and reduced market concerns, which could lead to lower prices, although sellers remain firm, keeping the market negotiating.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride)

Cobalt salt prices increased slightly in the week ending March 21. High raw material costs are challenging spot prices and some smaller factories are idle, keeping the overall operating rate for cobalt salts low. Some ternary cathode precursor firms are interested in stocking up for April, but demand from Co3O4 plants remains weak. Despite producers facing high costs and trying to maintain prices, market acceptance of high prices, particularly in the ternary cathode precursor and Co3O4 sectors, is low, leading to few transactions. In summary, cobalt salt prices marginally increased amid weak downstream demand. Market projections indicate subdued demand, which may limit increases in cobalt salt prices.

Cobalt salt tricobalt tetraoxide (Co3O4)

Co3O4 price rose slightly in the week ending March 21, with smelters operating at high levels due to strong orders. LCO producers are the main drivers of Co3O4 orders, with limited spot market activity. Driven by rising cobalt salt costs, Co3O4 manufacturers raised prices, but with limited market uptake, prices stabilized quickly.

Nickel sulphate

Nickel sulphate producers are producing based on sales, leaving supply in the spot market persistently tight. Downstream precursor producers currently possess low raw material stocks and are beginning to stock up for April’s production. On cost, the discount coefficients of MHP and high nickel matte remained at 80-81% and 84-85% respectively. Raw material costs remained high. The rise in nickel sulphate prices has outpaced the increase in its raw material prices. The profit margins of nickel sulphate producers have turned positive, regardless of the raw materials being used, but margins are quite thin with selling prices being only slightly above costs. Persistent supply tightness should continue to boost nickel sulphate prices, but the upside may be limited due to pushback from downstream buyers.

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