SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On December 6

SHANGHAI, December 6(SMM) –Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2401 aluminum contract opened at 18,390 yuan/mt, with its high and low at 18,470 yuan/mt and 18,370 yuan/mt before closing at 18,405 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt or 0.32%. LME aluminum opened at $2,185/mt yesterday, with its high and low at $2,186.5/mt and $2,150.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,165.5/mt, down $34.5/mt or 1.57%.
Experts at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley turned sharply bearish, citing overvalued technical indicators and believe that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as quickly as the market expects. Scott Rubner, managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a report that "there is no short-position" in the market. After the S&P 500 surged 9% in November and U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, the market is now becoming more cautious. Domestic macro data weakened, the manufacturing PMI index continues to be below 50%. Expectations for the release of favorable domestic policies at the end of the year are strong, but it will still take time to transmit them to manufacturing and other sectors. In terms of fundamentals, there are no further changes expected on the supply side in the short term, and market trading logic generally focuses on the resilience of consumer demand in the off-season. The short-term macro atmosphere is weak and the consumption off-season has a greater impact. Aluminum prices may remain weak and fluctuate. At the same time, inventory continues to be reduced, which has given aluminum prices certain support.