China Aluminum output in October and forecast for November

SMM data shows China's October 2023 aluminum production hit 3.641 million mt, up 6.7% YoY. Daily output averaged 117,500 mt. Cumulative production for the year till October was 34.458 million mt, up 3.5% YoY. However, in October, there was a decrease in production among primary aluminum processing producers such as aluminum billet, and the proportion of aluminum ingot production increased, reducing the industry's average molten aluminum share by 2.9 % to 70.33%. Aluminum ingot production rose 5% YoY in October, but decreased 10.5% YoY from January to October, totaling 10.21 million mt.

SMM reports China's October 2023 aluminum production capacity remained steady, with minor increases in Sichuan and routine maintenance of 10,000 mt in Qinghai. The new capacity of Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua, operational in late October, did not contribute to the production in October. Currently, China's aluminum installed capacity is around 45.19 million mt, including yet-to-operate and yet-to-phase-out capacities. Operating capacity is about 42.99 million mt. The national aluminum operating rate was approximately 95.1%, up 0.1% MoM.

In early November, Yunnan's aluminum smelters were asked to cut production due to limited power, with capacity cuts estimated at around 1.15 million mt. While some smelters started to reduce output, others are seeking more power, potentially lessening production cuts. SMM continues to monitor the situation. No major cuts are expected elsewhere in November. Considering the progress of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and the production reduction in Yunnan, SMM forecasts total aluminum processing in the country to near 41.98 million mt by November-end. November's aluminum production is expected at about 3.45 million mt, up 3.4% YoY.