Spot copper concentrate TCs met resistance from the $95/mt mark amid sluggish trades

As of August 4, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (Weekly) stood at $93.92/mt, $0.07/mt higher than July 28. The spot market was lukewarm this week. Despite a shortage of raw materials for the third and fourth quarters, inquiries from smelters decreased due to maintenance issues and negotiations on annual benchmark long-term contract TC in the fourth quarter. The price coefficient of Cu 20% domestic ore stood at 88.5-89.5%.

The current inquiries from smelters for seaborne clean ore scheduled for shipment in the four quarter stand at around $95/mt, while the traders’ offers are in the low $90s. SMM understood that there was a deal of 20,000 mt of clean seaborne ore scheduled for September between one trader and one smelter in north China, with TCs of $95/mt. A trader offered 10,000 mt of Robinson copper concentrate, scheduled for September, to a smelter in north-east China with TCs of $95/mt. There was a deal of 10,000 mt of seaborne clean ore traded between a trader and a smelter, scheduled for September, with TCs in the low $90s.

According to SMM survey, the technical upgrading project of a smelter in central China may be completed ahead of schedule, and is expected to be officially put into operation in late September or October. The copper smelting technology innovation and upgrading project of Baiyin Nonferrous is expected to be put into operation at the end of August, and feeding will begin in October. A smelter in north-east China has completed the first annual maintenance and will decide the second maintenance (technical upgrading) at the end of the year depending on the production situation.

According to foreign media reports, Freeport obtained an export license from the Indonesian government from July 24, 2023, and can thus export 1.7 million mt of copper concentrate before May 2024. But PT Freeport Indonesia said it was continuing discussions with the Indonesian government on the applicability of the revised regulations. The second phase of the Julong Copper Mine project is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in the second quarter of 2025.

Smelters will purchase spot cargoes despite adequate raw material inventories. Buyers’ inquiries were less than sellers’ offers. Chinese smelters stood on the sidelines in order to boost spot TCs or to secure an advantageous position in the upcoming annual long-term contract negotiations. Therefore, SMM believes that the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index will continue to rise, but there are certain challenges in breaking through $95/mt.