US Core PCE in May Missed Market Expectations, Copper Futures Prices Rebounded Last Friday Evening

LME copper prices closed at $8,319.5/mt last Friday evening, a rise of 1.79%. Trading volumes were 17,000 lots and open interest stood at 261,000 lots. SHFE 2308 copper contract finished at 67,850 yuan/mt last Friday evening, up 1.1%. Trading volume was 35,000 lots, and open interest stood at 185,000 lots.

On the macro front, economic data released last week showed that the core PCE price index in the United States in May was lower than market expectations, and consumer spending cooled. SMM data shows that as as of Friday June 30, SMM copper inventory across major Chinese markets stood at 99,100 mt, up 11,400 mt from Monday and up 15,900 mt from June 21. The total inventories decreased 27,100 mt from 126,200 mt in the same period last year.

There were shipments arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper in east China, which led to an increase in inventory; in South China, due to the approaching mid-year settlement, smelters liquidated stocks, while downstream buying interest was weak, growing inventories. In terms of consumption, as the mid-year settlement will end, demand is expected to increase.

Due to the impact of recent US economic data, copper prices have fluctuated greatly. It is expected that copper prices will still be guided by macro sentiment in the short term and will strengthen.