[SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary] US Fed's September rate hike probability rises to 66.9%, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract drifts lower in early trading
[9.3 Morning Meeting Notes] The US Fed gained another hawkish voice, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 66.9%. Governor Barr said he would support a rate hike if inflation fails to ease further. Combined with Warsh's earlier hawkish signals, the market is now focusing on the August CPI to be released on September 11—the most critical data before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Barclays now expects the US Fed to hike rates once each in September and December. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2610 contract drifted lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 126,690 yuan/mt, down 0.84%. The rising probability of a September Fed rate hike to 66.9%, the global bond sell-off, and a stronger US dollar are creating multiple headwinds. Nickel's own high inventory and weak demand remain unchanged. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 125,000-131,000 yuan/mt.
![[SMM Nickel Morning Meeting Summary] US Fed's September rate hike probability rises to 66.9%, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract drifts lower in early trading](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CWsEw20251217171732.jpeg)
