Main points:
The shanghai composite index is down 0.94% this week, while the CSI 300 index is down 1.06%. The iron and steel plate rose 3.97%; in the sub-plate, the general steel plate rose 7.30%, and the special materials plate fell 1.50%.
Steel market: poor logistics suppresses demand, waiting for the release of demand after the relief of the epidemic
The epidemic is distributed at many points, restricting the circulation of steel and restraining steel demand, the expectation of steel increment in long process is constantly realized, and the loss increment in short process is limited. At present, the inventory pressure in the plant begins to appear. As of April 8, 15 parents and short process representatives had a total scrap inventory of 882100 tons, down 1.62% from last week; the average daily delivery of scrap was 4360.00 tons, an increase of 2.25% over last week; and the average daily consumption was 4586.67 tons, an increase of 2.53% over last week. Social inventory and steel mill inventory increased both, rising to 15.9194 million tons, an increase of 45100 tons over last week, while steel mill inventories of major steel products fell to 6.5137 million tons, an increase of 221900 tons over last week. Rising raw material costs and falling inventories drive high steel prices sideways.
Steel prices rose slightly this week, with rebar, cold-rolled and medium plate spot prices up 1.39%, 0.71% and 1.16% respectively, while hot-rolled spot prices fell 1.32%. Specifically look at the subdivision of products: in terms of hot rolled coil, the epidemic situation has led to the hindrance of hot coil supply and terminal procurement, the total inventory is stable, and the overall market price has risen, but the driving force for price increase is still insufficient; in terms of scrap, the market continues to operate strongly, and transportation is blocked. The supply side is still tight, and it is expected that the short-term market will maintain a high consolidation operation. In terms of double coke, the coking coal market is in stable operation, the safety inspection of coal mines in the main producing areas has not been relaxed, the start-up of coal preparation plants has declined, and the supply of coking coal is limited; the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is high, the shipping situation has obviously improved, and downstream steel mills are expected to resume production, and the willingness to replenish the warehouse has been significantly enhanced.
In terms of special steel, under the guidance of high-quality development policy, subdivided tracks such as pipelines and steel structures deserve attention. From the point of view of the new infrastructure, China's pipelines have entered the upgrading stage, the construction of water supply and drainage system in rural areas is rough, and the construction of urban sponge pipe network is also imminent. It is suggested to pay attention to the new cast pipe, Jinzhou pipeline, Youfa Group and so on. As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a plate worthy of attention. the rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the downstream demand of electrical steel. at present, the valuation of the plate is generally not high, and we are optimistic about the electrical steel plate for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to Baosteel shares, Maanshan Iron and Steel shares, Shougang shares and so on.
This week, the spot market rebar price is 5090.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.39%; the hot-rolled coil price is 5210.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 1.32%; the cold-rolled coil price is 5660.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.71%; the medium plate price is 5250.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.16%. In the futures market, the rebar active contract price was 5019.00 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.73%; the hot rolled coil active contract price was 5195.00 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.33%; and the wire rod active contract price was 5438.00 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 1.88%. The Myspic composite steel price index was 190.35 points, with a weekly increase of 0.43%, of which the Myspic long wood index rose 0.65% and the Myspic flat index rose 0.17%.
Raw material market: the supply of coking coal is limited, and coke actively resumes production. As of Friday, the spot market price of Australian PB powder is 1005.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.50%; the price of primary metallurgical coke is 3710.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%; and the price of main coking coal is 3300.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.12%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore is 918.50 yuan / ton, the weekly decline is 0.81%, the contract coke active contract price is 4059.00 yuan / ton, the weekly increase is 1.55%, and the active price of coking coal is 3214.00 yuan / ton, the weekly decline is 0.92%. Affected by the epidemic and expected hype, the steel market is volatile, but price fluctuations did not lead to transaction increment, market shipments are still weaker than the pre-Ching Ming Festival level. Black disk surface has hit a new high of the year, supporting the continued rise in raw material prices.
Steel supply and demand: epidemic situation suppresses steel demand, production quickly recovers and slows inventory decline. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, cold rolling, hot rolling, wire rod, medium and heavy plate, and rebar rose 3.58%, 1.26%, 1.64%, 9.62% and 3.37%, respectively. In terms of steel output this week, the output of cold rolled, hot rolled, medium and heavy plate and thread increased by 4.64%, 3.95%, 2.90% and 2.11% respectively, while wire rod output decreased by 1.03%. In recent years, the inventory of steel mills has declined rapidly due to the start-up of "Jinsan" steel demand. Recently, logistics has been affected by the epidemic. On April 7, the China Iron and Steel Association released the latest factory warehouse data showing that the factory inventory in late March was 16.6199 million tons, down 2.95% from this year's peak, and the inventory pressure began to highlight. The decline in social inventory is significantly smaller than that in the same period last year. As of April 8, the inventory of iron and steel societies in 29 key cities across the country was 15.577 million tons, down 45000 tons from last week. Affected by the release of the positive signal of the national "stable" prefix and the improvement of the epidemic situation in many places, the real estate industry has warmed up, logistics has gradually recovered, and the demand for steel has increased steadily.
Investment suggestion
Manufacturing demand recovery superimposed carbon peak, carbon neutralization background, the profit logic of the iron and steel industry has been reconstructed, steel enterprises have further benefited from the cycle, we are still optimistic about the iron and steel sector for a long time. National defense industry, aerospace industry high scene demeanor superimposed broad domestic alternative space, high temperature alloy, special stainless steel, ultra-high strength steel and other products occupy an absolutely dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the special steel faucet with high scene demeanor in the industry: Fushun special steel; traditional field leader + hot emerging business target is more favored by the market, it is suggested to focus on stainless steel rod and wire rod and mica lithium bibcock: Yongxing material And the high-growth leader in the field of cold-rolled stainless steel: Yongjin shares.
Risk hint
COVID-19 's epidemic situation is repeated; the economic downturn is accelerating; raw material prices fluctuate sharply; the demand for steel for real estate has dropped sharply; and the process of steel destocking has been blocked.
