Accelerated upgrading of lithium technology, new trends and new opportunities
In 2022, lithium power technology is an important direction, leading technology upgrading, leading advantage further enhanced. In 2022, the price of raw materials is high, the cost of lithium electricity is under great pressure, and technological innovation is a means to reduce costs. Ningde era around the battery energy density, fast charge, safety, cost, from the electrochemical system upgrading and structural innovation layout, the technology reserve is deep, supporting the subsequent continuous increase of global share. We expect that from the two aspects of upgrading the material system and improving the packaging form, the technological progress will accelerate in 2022, the penetration of materials such as ultra-high nickel + lithium manganese iron + silicon carbon anode + carbon nanotubes + LIFSI will be accelerated, and 4680 cylinders will be installed and delivered in 2022, with a huge long-term plan, and new battery technologies such as sodium ion batteries are also expected to hit the ground in 2023, driving the increase of structural demand in the industry.
The upgrading of electrochemical system is the trend of positive core, ultra-high nickel and ferromanganese lithiation. The general trend of San Yuan High Nickel has increased its share to 40% in 2021, and the pure electrification platform of 2H22 overseas car companies has been launched, and the proportion of high nickel has been increased. In 23 years, the ultra-high nickel cathode will be mass produced on a large scale, and the battery end Ningde and the material end capacity will take the lead in the layout. Lithium ferromanganese phosphate is the upgrading direction of lithium iron phosphate, which has the advantage of iron lithium and can increase the energy density by 20%, but the conductivity is poor, the process is difficult, and the barrier is high. at present, the battery end Ningde and the material end German side have made rapid progress, and we expect large-scale mass production in the first half of 2023. In addition, Ningde era put forward the new technology route of M3P, which we expect to become a new direction in the future. At the same time, the positive electrode upgrade will drive the matching negative electrode (high voltage, silicification), electrolyte (new lithium salt additive), diaphragm (lightweight), copper foil (lightweight, PET new technology), conductive agent (carbon tube proportion increase).
The trend of structural system innovation is large capacity and high integration, with 4680 battery, CTP/CTC technology and blade battery as the main direction. The core of structural innovation is large capacity and high integration, with 4680, CTP, CTC as the direction; 4680 large cylindrical battery Q1 Tesla has been successfully mass produced and landed in 2022, and the large cylinder will drive the demand for high nickel cathode + silicon carbon negative electrode + carbon nanotube conductive agent + large cylindrical structure + new lithium salt. CTP technology is non-modular, which can increase energy density by 20% and reduce cost by 10%. Ningde and BYD have matured and promoted in 2021. The development of CTP3.0 and 4.0 technology in Ningde era will further improve the energy density of batteries. CTC is expected to be mass-produced in 2025, strengthening the power of battery companies to speak to the whole car factory.
Sodium battery technology has matured, Ningde era 2023 large-scale production, solid-state battery technology maturity still needs 5-10 years. In terms of the new battery technology route, the sodium battery advances steadily, with the short-term supplement and the semi-solid state as the long-term direction. After maturing, the cost advantage of sodium ion battery is more prominent than that of lithium battery, and it will be used in areas such as energy storage to supplement lithium battery. In the case of high price of lithium carbonate, the promotion of sodium ion battery is accelerated, and Ningde Times expects to produce it on a large scale in 2023. Semi-solid and solid-state batteries are the direction of the next generation of lithium battery technology, which is still in the laboratory stage. We expect that the technology is expected to mature after 2030.
Investment advice: the valuation of electric vehicles has dropped to the bottom, 22 years of high demeanor continued, leading performance we expect to maintain 80-100% high growth, continue to be bullish on electric vehicles in an all-round way, the first main line is optimistic about the 22-year profit repair of the battery link, the long-term pattern is good, superimposed energy storage is blessed, recommend the leading Ningde era, Yiwei Lithium Energy, BYD, pay attention to Xinwangda, Azure Lithium Core, the second main line is the upgrading of battery technology. High nickel ternary (recommend Rongbai Technology, Huayou Cobalt Industry, Zhongwei Co., Dangsheng Technology), structural parts (recommend Kodali), Manganese Lithium (recommended German Nano, Iron Lithium link focus on Fulin Seiko, Longchuan Technology), Additives (recommended Tiannai Technology); The third is the continuous shortage of bibcock: diaphragm (recommend Enjie shares, Xingyuan material), negative electrode (recommend Pu Tai Lai, pay attention to Betteri, Zhongke Electric, Cedar shares), electrolyte (recommend Tianci materials, new Zebang), copper foil (recommend Nord shares, pay attention to Jiayuan Technology); Article 4: lithium shortage and price exceeding expectations, pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, Rongjie shares, Salt Lake shares, Tibet Mining, Tianhua Super Clean, etc.
Risk tips: price competition is higher than expected, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, the decline in investment growth, the impact of the epidemic.
