Jinyuan Futures: recently, Shanghai lead fluctuates violently, and the fundamentals are weak to exert pressure.

Spot market: Shanghai Changchi Hongyang lead 15080 yuan / ton, discount for Shanghai lead 2204 contract 180 yuan / ton; Jiang Copper, Copper Guan 15220 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton for Shanghai lead 2204 contract. Lead concussion in the future goes down, the price of the holder follows the market, the downstream enterprises purchase on demand at every bargain, the enthusiasm of inquiry is good, and the trading activity of the bulk market is slightly better. LME inventories were flat at 39250 tonnes yesterday. From a fundamental point of view, domestic processing fees remained low in March, while import processing fees fell month-on-month. Recently, the production of primary lead smelter has been stable, and the start-up has picked up steadily, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production of primary lead. In terms of recycled lead, due to the implementation of the fiscal and tax policy in March, raw material waste batteries are quoted with tax and the price is high, the problem of recyclers obtaining VAT invoices is expected to take a long time to solve, and the production and storage of enterprises may be limited after raw material consumption. The production of downstream storage enterprises has increased steadily, but lead batteries have entered the traditional off-season and lead prices are high. On the whole, the current supply side is affected by the shortage of raw materials and fiscal and taxation policies, and the supply increment is limited, but downstream storage enterprises have entered the off-season, and it is difficult to boost demand. In addition, when the current price gap continues to expand, enterprises are active in delivery, and social inventories continue to increase. Limit the driving force of lead price rise. Recently, the market is controlled by funds, and the futures price fluctuates violently, but under the background of weak fundamentals, the futures price is still weak.