Pioneering Securities: "steady growth" + low inventory helps Industrial Metal prices Cobalt and Lithium continue to rise

Higher-than-expected social finance data boost plate attention "steady growth" policy to boost industrial metal prices

According to the social financing data released in January this week, the total size of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, both of which hit an all-time high. At the same time, urban investment bonds, special bonds and other infrastructure financing increased significantly, which is conducive to the improvement of the attention of the industrial metal plate. At the same time, in the context of "steady growth" this year, the demand for industrial metals is expected to improve marginally. This week, LME copper fell-0.12 per cent to US $9830 per tonne; LME aluminum rose 4.07 per cent to US $3199 per tonne; LME lead rose 4.57 per cent to US $2287.5 per tonne; LME zinc rose 1.19 per cent to US $3655.5 per tonne; LME tin rose 1.81 per cent to US $43800 per tonne; and LME nickel rose 1.06 per cent to US $23235 per tonne. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, Zijin Mining, Shenhuo shares, Yunnan Aluminum shares.

The rising trend of lithium carbonate after the festival remains tight.

The price of lithium carbonate continues to rise after the Spring Festival holiday. Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 4% to 390000 yuan / ton this week, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 5.70% to 371000 yuan / ton. The production increment of lithium carbonate at home and abroad is mainly concentrated in the second half of this year, and the tight supply pattern is expected to be maintained in the first half of this year. Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry and Rongjie shares are recommended. Cobalt prices rose slightly this week, with electrolytic cobalt rising 2.37% to close at 519000 yuan / ton. South Africa transport difficulties remain, cobalt prices are expected to maintain a rising trend, recommended to pay attention to Huayou cobalt industry, cold cobalt industry.

Low inventory accelerates the rise of copper and aluminum prices the epidemic situation in Guangxi affects the short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum

Copper rose 1.45% to 72510 yuan / ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week, while aluminum rose 4.78% to 22970 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory level of copper and aluminum is low, which increases the flexibility of price increase. At the same time, overseas is subject to a sharp increase in the cost of electricity prices, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum shrinks The epidemic situation in Guangxi affects the short-term production and transportation of electrolytic aluminum in China, and aluminum prices are easy to rise in the near future. Recommended attention: Tongling Nonferrous, Yunnan Copper, Aluminum of China.

The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has boosted risk aversion. Gold prices have risen significantly this week.

The situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to be tense this week, and the market risk aversion mood has warmed up. Spot gold in London rose 2.82 per cent to $1858.44 an ounce this week, while the dollar index rose 0.59 per cent to 96.03. COMEX gold rose 2.92 per cent to $1842.10 an ounce this week, while COMEX silver rose 5.01 per cent to $23.37 an ounce. This week, the quarterly CPI rate in the United States rose 7.5% at the end of January, a 40-year high and exceeded market expectations. We believe that continued high inflation data in the United States have increased market expectations of a Fed interest rate hike, and gold prices are likely to remain volatile.

Risk hint: the Fed's policy changes more than expected, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.