SMM, Jan. 4: in the past year, "lithium battery" has undoubtedly become the hottest technical word of the year. Stimulated by the explosive growth of market demand for lithium materials, lithium materials also ushered in a wave of eye-popping "price increases" in 2021. SMM collated the price trends of 14 major lithium materials from January 4, 2021 to December 31, 2021, and you can see that there are even year-on-year increases of more than 400%.
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The best performer in 2021 is battery-grade lithium carbonate. Since August, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been rising rapidly. As of December 31, 2022, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 275000 yuan / ton, up 418.87% from the same period in 2021.
Battery-grade lithium hydroxide, which left lithium carbonate behind until July, rose not far behind, at 349.49%. From the recent trend of the two, compared with lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide performance is more stable, according to SMM research, lithium hydroxide downstream is mainly long single. However, with the rapid rise in the price of lithium carbonate recently, some lithium iron manufacturers have increased their inquiry for lithium hydroxide, which once led to a sharp rise in the price of lithium hydroxide.
In terms of electrolytes, with the rapid rise in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, one of its raw materials, so does the price of electrolyte. As of December 31, 2021, the year-on-year increase of 213.16% was second only to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. And SMM also put on the shelves of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021, according to the latest data, as of December 31, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 550000 yuan / ton, according to SMM research, the current lithium hexafluorophosphate production line continues to release, the overall industry supply has been alleviated to a certain extent, the price is stable, while VC and other additives are also stable, therefore, SMM expects the overall future price of electrolyte will remain stable. "View details
As for cobalt, cobalt chloride, in particular, performed best, with an increase of 113.79% during the year. Electrolytic cobalt increased by 77.74% this year. From its price trend, it is not difficult to see that the increase in the price of electrolytic cobalt is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. Among them, the fourth quarter due to the interference of the epidemic in South Africa and the temporary suspension of production of two cobalt salt enterprises in Zhejiang Province, also stimulated the upward price of electrolytic cobalt and cobalt salt to varying degrees.
For its future trend, SMM in the "'Cobalt Grandma Lithium Grandpa' 2021 price double brush 3-year new high next year how long can it be strong?" [SMM Annual Review] mentioned that from 2022 to 2023, the global cobalt market may tend to accumulate, the growth rate of supply is faster than the growth rate of demand, and the price trend of electrolytic cobalt is downward.
The price fluctuation of ternary materials (523) is mainly affected by the prices of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium metals and the structure of supply and demand. In the whole year of 2021, under the background of relatively stable prices of nickel and manganese, cobalt lithium, which has a large price increase, led the trend of ternary materials. SMM predicts that the average price of ternary materials (523) in China may reach 270000 yuan / ton in 2022.
On the whole, the rise of lithium materials in 2021 is gratifying, and with the explosive growth of new energy vehicles, more and more institutions are optimistic about the future price of cobalt and lithium.
Cobalt, Sino-Thai Securities believes that in the context of tightening raw materials, cobalt prices may rise further. Guoxin Securities believes that cobalt prices are expected to remain high in 2022. The global cobalt ore supply is expected to maintain a steady and rising pattern, the global automobile electrification development will still lead to the rapid growth of cobalt demand, and cobalt supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance. The global cobalt raw material supply chain is fragile, and repeated outbreaks in Africa and the instability of the political environment may have an impact on cobalt supply.
In terms of lithium, China International Capital Corporation believes that even though more new projects will be put into production from 2022 to 2023, the overall supply and demand of lithium is still tight. The reason is that lithium resource projects generally need a capacity climbing cycle of half a year to two years according to different resource types and process paths, and the effective supply of new production projects is relatively limited. Taking into account the complexity of the development of lithium resources, the long-term progress of new supply is also easy to be lower than the current market expectations, so the duration of supply and demand shortage may still exceed current market expectations.
Huafu Securities believes that the supply of lithium ore will increase by about 15-20% in 2022, which is significantly lower than the 40% demand growth expected by the current market. The tight supply and demand pattern of lithium ore in 2022 is very difficult to change. At the same time, the market gives companies with a larger range of production expansion higher valuation flexibility in the face of tight supply and demand. Looking forward to 2022, the huge demand for new energy vehicles will benefit lithium panels as a whole, but the priority of the battery end will be significantly increased. Comprehensive consideration: battery end > diaphragm > electrolyte, mine end, positive and negative electrode.
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