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At the 2021 (9th) Silicon Industry Summit held by SMM, Lu Jialong, Senior Vice President of SMM, analyzed the future of SMM silicon industry price system and photovoltaic industry chain pricing mainly from two aspects: Silicon price system, silicon price and photovoltaic industry chain pricing.
Photovoltaic is the most potential consumer terminal in the silicon industry chain.
In 2020, China used 511000 tons of metal silicon for polysilicon, accounting for 26% of the domestic consumption of metal silicon. It is estimated that by 2025, the amount of metal silicon used in polysilicon will reach 1.96 million tons, with a CAGR of 24%, accounting for 49% of domestic consumption.
Metal and silicon industry ceiling improvement and industrial upgrading ushered in acceleration-- large-scale effect and stable production
The more mature the industrial chain is, the less speculative phenomenon is, and the evolution of the industrial chain will eliminate the enterprises of risk speculation.
Speculative mentality-- A tool to speculate and make a profit through price
The mature manufacturing industry should avoid the risk of fluctuation in the sales price of raw materials and products, so as to stabilize profits, stabilize production and produce large-scale effects.
Crystal silicon cell is the core material of photovoltaic module.
What is a healthy price system?
What are the benefits of benchmarking + /-adjustment?
More transparent pricing, lower transaction costs; better reflect the advantages of high-end brands-SMM price + brand rising water; balanced distribution of industrial profits (losses).
Cells account for nearly 70% of the cost of photovoltaic modules. Silicon, aluminum, silver, copper, tin, platinum and palladium are the main elements.
The cause of price fluctuation
Monthly average Price Model-- the pricing Model with the lowest transaction cost
The requirements of double control of energy consumption and power restriction since the beginning of the year will reduce the production of non-ferrous metals and downstream enterprises throughout the whole year.
Electrolytic aluminum as an example
From January to October this year, due to double control of energy consumption, electricity restriction and lack of coal, the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 3.2 million tons, accounting for 9% of the total domestic production capacity. Among them, Yunnan affected production capacity of 1.44 million tons, Guangxi 680000 tons, Inner Mongolia 450000 tons.
From 2021Q4 to 2022Q1, the limited production capacity will be further increased.
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