[institutional Review] the price of basic metals is fluctuated and adjusted, and the price of lithium rises steadily.

Main points:

Non-ferrous metals outperformed the market this week, down 0.19%. Among the sub-plates, the top three increases were rare earth plate, magnetic material block and new metal material plate Ⅲ, which were 6.41%, 3.85% and 3.31% respectively.

Basic metal

The overall operation of the cash market for base metals this week is weak. Futures market: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin rose or decreased by-4.65%,-9.45%,-10.24%, 4.08%,-0.71%,-0.45% respectively compared with the same period last week. The price of basic metals in the domestic spot market was weak, with prices of other basic metals falling to varying degrees except for lead and tin. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin rose and fell by-1.07%,-7.36%,-2.94%, 3.58%,-3.00% and 1.40%, respectively. This week, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it would intervene in coal prices in accordance with the law. Coal and others fell by the limit at the national policy level, affecting the prices of metals such as copper and aluminum. Copper: due to the continuous impact of the limited electricity policy, the operating rate of smelters and downstream processing enterprises is obviously low. Power cuts began in Jiangxi Province this week, affecting the normal production of local downstream high-energy copper processing enterprises, and it is expected that market demand will still be dragged down under the upgrading of power cuts and the double control of energy consumption. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory is about 39800 tons, down 4.39% from the same period last week, and domestic stocks still maintain the trend of destocking. It is expected that the double control of energy consumption and power restriction policy will still have an impact on upstream and downstream production in the fourth quarter, but domestic inventory reduction forms a strong support for prices, and copper prices will continue to fluctuate in the range. Aluminum: domestic aluminum prices rose first and then suppressed this week. During the week, the regulation of the coal market and consumption in the downstream market were lower than expected, and aluminum ingot stocks accumulated continuously, resulting in lower aluminum prices during the week. As of Friday, SHFE aluminium stocks stood at 269600 tonnes, up 8.3 per cent from the same period last week. Consumers still lack peak season performance, and a new round of power cuts in Henan affects the operating rate of local processing enterprises. Under the upgrading of power cuts and the double control of energy consumption, the peak consumption season may continue, aluminum ingot inventory is expected to be under pressure, aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate. Suggested attention: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Chinalco, Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd., China Hongqiao.

New energy metal

The price of new energy metals is more divergent this week. Cobalt: the price of cobalt is relatively stable this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 401000 yuan / ton, up 0.25% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is basically the same as the rise, the price of cobalt sulfate is 89000 yuan / ton, and the price of cobalt tetroxide is 325500 yuan / ton. The rise in cobalt market demand this week is still less than expected, downstream manufacturers are less willing to purchase, mainly rigid demand procurement, the actual trading volume is low. At present, the supply and demand of cobalt market is weak, and the price of cobalt is mainly to maintain stability. Lithium: the lithium salt market has maintained a stable operation this week, and the rise in lithium salt prices has slowed down. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 193000 yuan / ton, up 2.67% from last week; the price of lithium hydroxide was 179000 yuan / ton, up 1.13% from last week. This week, the lithium salt market continues to improve, the terminal market demand is strong, the operating rate of mainstream cathode material manufacturers is stable, and the mood of raw material hoarding is increasing. At present, the tight supply of domestic lithium mineral resources remains unchanged, and supply and demand continue to be tight to support the stable operation of lithium prices. It is suggested to focus on: Huayou Cobalt Industry and Hanrui Cobalt Industry, which are the targets of the integrated layout of cobalt industry; Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, the leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources; Salt Lake Lithium related targets: salt Lake shares, Tibet Everest, Tibet Mining, medium Mine Resources; Lithium Mica related targets: Yongxing Materials, Jiangdian Special Machinery; spodumene related targets: Sichuan Energy Power.

Precious metal

The overall shock of precious metals is strong this week. Gold: gold prices have strengthened this week, with COMEX gold at $1793.1 an ounce as of Friday, up 1.41% from last week, and spot gold in London at $1808.3 an ounce, up 2.01%. Silver: COMEX silver price is $23.60 / oz, up 4.2% from last week; spot silver price in London is $23.30 / oz, up 2.86%. This week, the United States released a beige book, which pointed out that the growth rate of the US economy from September to early October was between moderate and moderate, and the short-term economic outlook remained optimistic. But at the same time, the report also weighed on the dollar index due to high uncertainty in some areas, boosting the price of gold. At present, the Fed's multi-party statement is hawkish, the market is still worried about high inflation, and expectations for a reduction in bond purchases next month continue to increase, and gold is expected to remain volatile. Suggested attention: Chifeng Gold, Yintai Gold, Shengda Resources.

Risk hint

The demand is lower than expected; the upstream mine exceeds the expected supply; the risk of policy change.