[agency Review] focus on the supply of pressurized aluminum, rare earths and lithium

Investment advice: continue to recommend non-ferrous metal plates. Under the background of carbon neutralization, supply ceiling constraints, superimposed high demand for new energy, sustainable growth of consumer demand, the overall non-ferrous metal plate has entered a stage of continuous improvement in the structure of supply and demand. 1) continue to be optimistic about the strong cycle of industrial metals copper, aluminum, zinc, especially the electrolytic aluminum industry, which benefits from carbon neutralization and weakening costs, and pay attention to Shenhuo shares, Yunnan Aluminum shares, Suotong Development, Zijin Mining and so on. 2) firmly optimistic about the upstream materials of new energy, such as lithium, cobalt, rare earth permanent magnets, etc., and gradually realize their achievements under the background of high demand growth, and recommend Baotou Steel shares, Shenghe Resources, Jinli permanent Magnet and Yongxing Materials. Pay attention to Ningbo Yunsheng, northern rare earths, salt lake shares, Tianqi lithium industry, Ganfeng lithium industry and so on. 3) other high-quality new material processing stocks, recommend Hailiang shares, suggest paying attention to Bowei alloy and so on.

Industry point of view: continue to pay attention to the tight supply and demand of aluminum, rare earths, lithium. Some electrolytic aluminum production capacity may be shut down in Qinghai, Gansu and other places in China due to power problems, and some European aluminum plants have also been shut down as a result of overseas energy crisis, and supply-side pressure is expected to form a strong support for electrolytic aluminum prices. In terms of rare earths, the production of some rare earth raw materials enterprises has also been affected by power cuts, and Myanmar's mine imports have not yet resumed. In terms of lithium, the downstream has gradually entered the traditional peak season. The output of new energy vehicles in China in September is 148% less than the same period last year and 15% month-on-month. Salt lake production in the western region is likely to begin to decline due to seasonal factors, and the tight pattern of supply and demand is expected to intensify.

Market review: this week (October 11-October 15), the CSI 300 index rose 0.04% to close at 4932. The non-ferrous metals (Shenwan) index rose 3.16% to close at 5785. In the fine molecular industry of non-ferrous metals, according to the Shenwan third-level index: copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, gold, small metals and new metal materials increased by 3.55%,-1.61%, 1.61%, 7.26%, 2.46% and-1.48%, respectively. Individual stocks rose in the top five companies for Jianlong Weiner, Hesheng shares, medium tungsten high-tech, Chihong zinc germanium, Jinbo shares.

Industry tracking:

Base metal:

Aluminum: aluminum prices continue to rise this week, although inventories have accumulated after the holiday, but power cuts and poor downstream start-up have made supply and demand tight, and aluminum prices have broken new highs.

Copper: copper prices have risen sharply this week, and the production of processing enterprises downstream of the "double-limit policy" is unstable, showing the characteristics of weak supply and demand.

Lead and zinc: the supply of reduced lead within the week is tight and then loose, and the price gap between the north and the south is gradually narrowing. On the whole, the social inventory of lead ingots continues to increase.

Precious metals: the dollar index remains above 94, and the short-term energy crisis and inflationary pressures have led investors to buy gold as a hedge against inflation.

Rare earths: the overall quotation of rare earth market separation enterprises is strong this week, and metal enterprise inquiries are more active. With the purchase of an appropriate amount, the supply of goods at low prices in the market is tightened, and the price of oxides is moved up.

Lithium: lithium salt market recently affected by downstream power cuts are weak, lithium hydroxide is particularly obvious, downstream high nickel material orders continue to weaken, lithium hydroxide price pressure is obvious.

Cobalt: affected by overseas electricity cobalt, the price of cobalt salt rose this week. Cost support, superimposed downstream inquiry order increased, cobalt tetroxide spot quotation increased significantly.

New materials for small metals: magnesium prices showed a pullback trend this week. Under the influence of high magnesium prices, downstream demand has weakened and the market has fallen into a stalemate game situation.

Risk hint: economic growth is lower than expected and US liquidity turns.