The policy of hydrogen energy industry is good for analysts to define the focus of two stages of investment, which is expected to be the first to benefit.

On October 12, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the High Technology Department recently organized a series of symposiums on the development of the hydrogen energy industry, focusing on the whole industry chain of hydrogen energy preparation, storage, transportation, filling and terminal utilization, to analyze and judge the development situation of the industry, and to discuss in depth the rational layout of the hydrogen industry, orderly promotion of diversified demonstration applications, the construction of a clean and low-carbon supply system, and the formulation and improvement of basic standards for the industry.

The parties concerned agreed that the healthy and orderly development of the hydrogen energy industry is of great significance to the green and low-carbon transformation of China's energy and the realization of the goal of carbon peak carbon neutralization, and it is necessary to further strengthen the top-level design, speed up technological innovation, and improve the policy system. strive to achieve high-quality development.

In order to practice the "hydrogen" function, local governments have already begun to formulate goals and plans. Just yesterday, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission introduced that it would focus on the development of nine green innovative technologies such as hydrogen energy. Shaanxi recently proposed to speed up the compilation of the Shaanxi hydrogen Energy Industry Development Plan to promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry. the formation of 2-3 kiloton fuel cell hydrogen plants; Shanghai's "implementation Plan for Building a High-quality hydrogen Energy demonstration Application scene in Lingang New area (2021-2025)" proposes that by 2025, the application of 1500 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be completed, 14 hydrogenation stations of various types will be completed, the annual hydrogen supply will be no less than 14000 tons, and the annual hydrogen self-sufficiency rate will not be less than 30% of the demand for that year.

At the same time, the process of domestic hydrogen energy industrialization is also being further accelerated. Sinopec plans to build a total of 1000 hydrogenation stations or oil-hydrogen mixing stations by 2025. Chai Maorong, director and chief technical officer of the State Power Investment Group hydrogen Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd., said in an exclusive interview with the Financial Union recently that China's hydrogen energy industry will enter a rapid development channel around 2025, and the hydrogen energy industry will enter a stable development period around 2035, realizing large-scale hydrogen use, hydrogen production, and hydrogen storage. By around 2050, the hydrogen industry will enter a mature period, about 50% of vehicles are hydrogen-powered vehicles, and household energy sources such as heating are also expected to rely on hydrogen energy. The future energy structure proposed by the State Power Investment Group hydrogen Energy Company in 2017 is the complementarity of Electroweb and hydrogen grid, and the electric-hydrogen power system is being recognized by counterparts at home and abroad.

Recently, some institutions have released reports that are optimistic about investment opportunities in the hydrogen energy industry. Wu Chenghao, an analyst at Guolian Securities, released a research report on October 10th, believing that with the increase of many factors, such as policy support, technological progress, upgrading of the level of localization, large-scale production and other factors, hydrogen heavy truck TCO will achieve parity with diesel heavy truck by 2030. Combined with the cost reduction path of hydrogen energy heavy truck, the analyst further distinguished the establishment of an investment framework at different stages of development:

1. 2020-2025 (starting period). At this stage, the infrastructure and the technology of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not yet mature, and the cost of vehicle purchase and hydrogenation is still high. Policy support has become the main driving force for the development of hydrogen energy vehicles at this stage, and the direction focuses on the development of medium and heavy trucks. The market space is expected to reach 10 billion yuan. Fuel cell stacks and system suppliers close to the terminal hydrogen energy heavy truck demand at this stage will be the first to benefit. Therefore, we focus on suppliers with fuel cell system integration capability and vehicle customer base, such as Yihuatong, reshaping shares and so on.

2. 2025-2030 (acceleration period). With the increasing popularity of infrastructure, technological innovation and falling costs to push the industry into an accelerated period of development, the annual sales scale is expected to reach 100000 vehicles by 2030, and the market space is expected to reach 100 billion scales. at this stage, the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain will usher in the first large-scale expansion, and the stack, core components and materials will all benefit from the scale growth at this stage. From the point of view of unit value, it is suggested that we should first pay attention to the air compressor & hydrogen cycle (Snowman, Hanzhong Seiki, Kingston, potential plus Tubo, etc.) and hydrogen storage bottles (Sinopec, CIMC Enrico, Guofu hydrogen Energy, etc.). Secondly, pay attention to the upstream core materials catalysts (platinum industry, Jiping new energy, etc.) and proton exchange membrane (Dongyue Group).