China Merchants Securities: Q3 construction enters the peak season + completion and improvement, and the demand for building materials is expected to improve.
The agency believes that from the reporting results, the leading performance of the waterproofing and ceramic tile industry is high; revenue of the pipe and paint industry is also good, but the rising price of raw materials is a drag on net profit growth. There are four major trends in the industry:
1) the logic of concentration remains unchanged: on the one hand, the "double carbon" goal and the environmental protection inspectors who strictly control the "two highs" will be eliminated, optimizing the supply and demand pattern of overcapacity at the low end; on the other hand, the tight regulation and maintenance of real estate increases the capital advance pressure of building materials enterprises, the financing advantages and scale advantages of listed enterprises are highlighted, and the strong ones are always strong.
2) Channel reform: B-end collection is easy to enhance scale effect, small B-end retail has better cash flow, head consumer building materials leaders mostly adopt two-wheel drive channel strategy, benefiting from the increase of B-end real estate concentration and C-end channel sinking, market share has increased, and ensure long-term sustainable development.
3) capacity-led growth: under the trend of fine decoration and consumption upgrading, the market demand for middle and high-end consumer building materials products increases, and the leader can achieve marginal growth through purchasing or building capacity in the short and medium term.
4) Sub-industries infiltrate each other: to target overseas consumer building materials giants (such as Mohawk, Xuanwei, etc.), diversified development is the only way to become a building materials giant, and multi-category development in the main steady situation helps to maintain growth.
China International Capital Corporation: the rising momentum of paper prices still needs to be strengthened, waiting for the peak season to boost demand.
With the gradual arrival of the peak season, the price of box tile paper ushered in an improvement, but inventory remains high or affects the range of increase in the peak season. Due to the impact of weak terminal demand, epidemic situation and power constraints, there is expected to be new production capacity of broad-leaf pulp during the year. Last week, the spot price of wood pulp continued to adjust slightly, and the rising power of pulp and paper prices was insufficient.
At present, it is judged that the price of box tile paper and pulp paper has basically hit bottom, the profit of the industry unit is at the bottom of the cycle, and the leading valuation fully reflects pessimistic expectations. it is suggested that the bottom layout has both growth space and safety margin of the industry leading Sun Paper and Mountain Eagle International, while we reiterate that the paper industry preferred crane shares.
Pacific Ocean: holiday approaching plate to welcome the peak season market residential accommodation is good for the hotel industry
The Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is the only long holiday of the year, and the passenger flow that did not take place in the summer due to the epidemic is expected to flow to the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, driving the domestic tourism industry to return to a new peak this year. Under the condition that the domestic epidemic is not repeated, the passenger flow during the National Day holiday is expected to exceed the level of the same period in 2019.
Universal Studios opened and the government cleaned up the hotel industry. With the opening of Universal Studios approaching, Beijing has recently carried out a centralized rectification of the residential accommodation industry in the city, especially around Universal Studios, and removed all the "six certificates" that do not meet the requirements of residential accommodation in Beijing's notice on standardized Management of short-term Rent Housing, raising the entry and management threshold of residential accommodation to a certain extent, which is expected to have a positive impact on standardized hotel performance.
The competition for tax exemption on outlying islands has intensified, and the industry is about to enter the peak season. In the near future, JD.com and Bank Construction will acquire a 22.36% stake in Lagerdale for 9400 euros. Lagerdale is the world's leading tourism retailer. JD.com and state-owned funds will help Lagerdale to better expand its business in China and the digital transformation of duty-free shops. The second phase of Haikou global boutique duty-free city opened on August 30, with a floor area of more than 30,000 square meters, settled in more than 200 brands, and added various categories of bags, jewelry and watches. Recently, Sanya duty-free city held the 7th anniversary celebration, in which the first handbag was exempted, the promotion of goods was intensified, and the tax-free competition on the outlying islands was further intensified. After the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, Q4 Hainan tourism has entered the peak season, and the duty-free industry is expected to break through the dull situation caused by the epidemic repeatedly and achieve a further breakthrough in sales.
Tianfeng Securities: the stock of spirits in peak season is worth looking forward to.
The core logic of liquor is that under the background of consumption upgrading, the company relies on high brand barriers to raise prices and upgrade product structure, and the recovery of short-term consumption power of consumers is only an external factor. There is no essential change in the ability of liquor enterprises to raise prices and upgrade product structure.
Wuliangye is more likely to exceed expectations in the short term, and the Wuliangye wholesale price may stand at 1000 yuan in the second half of the year. At the same time, with the comprehensive promotion of the classic Wuliangye policy, the company will rely on the strategic layout of the classic Wuliangye product system with a higher price belt. the product structure will be further improved in the future, and the quarterly growth rate will continue to increase compared with the previous quarter, so we will continue to recommend it.
High-end price increases will further open the sub-high-end price belt, superimposed high-end enterprises attach importance to product structure upgrading and expand marketing channels, it is expected that the performance of secondary high-end wine enterprises will still be flexible in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the moving sales of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the performance of the second half of the high-end wine enterprises.
Citic Construction Investment Co., Ltd.: Apple's new products will release the industrial chain to enter the peak season of stock preparation.
Overall, in the first half of the year, due to chip shortages, the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad, and weak domestic demand, consumer electronics companies were relatively difficult in the second quarter, and their gross profit margins were under greater pressure. However, the consumer electronics sector still delivered relatively good results in the first half of the year, reflecting the company's better cost control ability.
Many new Apple products will be released in September, including iPhone 13, new Watch, new airpods, new Macbook, etc., and the industrial chain has also entered the peak stock season. It is expected that the momentum and market demand for goods will be relatively strong in the third quarter, and the performance of listed companies will be more certain. On the other hand, Android side will also benefit from the recovery of purchasing power and the layout of new machines, and it is expected that there will be a good opportunity for the layout of the consumer electronics sector in the third quarter.
