Why the collective rise in lead prices of metals is so weak? It is still difficult to raise one's head under high inventory.

SMM August 31: recently, the lead price trend can be described as "fragile", the surrounding metals rose collectively, Shanghai tin, Shanghai aluminum repeatedly brushed new highs, but Shanghai lead has continued to decline since the middle and last ten days of July.

Today, the main lead in Shanghai closed down again by 1.64 per cent at 15025 yuan per tonne, down 8.5 per cent from its high on July 26th.

Hand in hand with Shanghai lead is the spot price of lead. According to SMM prices, the average price of SMM lead ingots on August 31 was 14950 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton from the high point of July 23, or 6.27%.

"Click to see more SMM metal spot prices.

In terms of fundamentals, according to SMM research, the current production of primary lead smelters in Henan and Anhui has resumed, the supply of lead ingots has increased, and the trend of accumulation is still continuing. As of August 30, the total inventory of lead ingots in SMM five places has increased to 206300 tons. Taking into account the export shipping restrictions, the superimposed production of the newly expanded refinery of recycled lead as scheduled, and the trend of continued increase in supply, SMM predicts that the short-term lead ingot accumulation pattern will be difficult to reverse.

Data source: SMM database

In terms of consumption, at present, the market is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, downstream stock enthusiasm is not high, consumption still maintains a moderate recovery trend, the performance is not outstanding. At present, the market is generally in the cautious wait-and-see stage, there is a certain bearish mood.

To sum up, it is expected that the short-term lead price rebound space is limited, or will continue to maintain weak shocks, at present, we can first pay attention to 15000 yuan / ton first-line support.