SMM7 March 19: yesterday the outer disk metal market was mixed. Among them, Lunxi brushed an all-time high again because it was worried about the supply of Myanmar, the main producing country. Shanghai tin is close to an all-time high. Today, most of the LME metal market is green. As of 09:30, Lun Copper and Lun lead are down nearly 0.1%, Lun Zinc is down nearly 0.2%, Lunni and Lunxi are down nearly 0.3%, and Lunxi Aluminum is up slightly. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai copper are down nearly 0.3%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 0.9%, Shanghai zinc is up nearly 1.3%, Shanghai nickel is up nearly 1.2%, and Shanghai tin is up nearly 3.7%.
In terms of copper, the market has heard that some officials have said that the inflation rate and employment rate have reached the Fed's expectations, and Powell also said that he will discuss the plan to gradually reduce the size of bond purchases at the Fed's interest rate meeting in July, so this week he will focus on the Fed's interest rate meeting and the initial PMI data in Europe and the United States. SMM expects that under the condition that the overall PMI data perform well, the Fed is expected to send some hawkish signals to test market sentiment. Copper prices will therefore be suppressed to some extent, but the overall direction.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the continued volatility range of copper in the last cycle did not change its focus on the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and PMI data from Europe and the United States.
In terms of aluminum, from a macro point of view, liquidity is abundant around the world, and domestic economic development is stable and improving. Fundamentally, current aluminum consumption shows signs of weakening, but aluminum ingot inventory is still in the de-stocking cycle. Recently, Yunnan, Henan and other places once again spread the power restriction policy, the two-way weakening of supply and demand, the off-season inventory inflection point time may change, if you still go to the warehouse this week, Shanghai Aluminum will continue to push higher. Continuous attention should be paid to the progress of power cuts, inventory inflection points and changes in multi-short sentiment.
[minutes of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] High-level consolidation of aluminum in both internal and external periods pays close attention to today's inventory data.
With regard to lead, the notice of power cuts in the two places is expected to last for a week, which currently does not have a significant impact on the production of lead smelting enterprises. at the same time, with the rise in lead prices, the profits of recycled lead have been repaired, the enthusiasm of refineries to resume work has been boosted, and the overall supply has only increased rather than decreased. Thanks to the slight improvement in lead battery market consumption in mid-late July, the peak season is expected to remain, and there is some support for the follow-up lead price. Lead prices are expected to remain high this week, if there is no new good news boost, it is expected that after the power outage news, lead prices will be relatively adjusted.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] late lead correction on Friday is expected to keep lead prices high this week.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded three Lianyang, the upper 40-day moving average to form a suppression, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. Overnight outer disk uplink led, Shanghai zinc high operation, macro overseas easing policy continued, fundamental Yunnan power supply disturbance, social inventory low background caused supply concerns, but throwing zinc ingots expected to cut Shanghai zinc short-term shock mode.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] slightly improve zinc price under supply disturbance
On the nickel side, although the Fed continues to tolerate temporarily high inflation, there is no shortage of hawk claims that jobs and inflation have met their targets and should start curtailing bond purchases. Under the uncertainty of the macro direction, the trading logic of the nickel market has gradually returned to the fundamentals. Last week, however, the focus was on the continuous surge in the production of stainless steel downstream of nickel due to rumors of crude steel production restrictions and the reduction of electricity production of ferrochromium at the end of raw materials.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel prices are expected to rise in line with stainless steel limited nickel this week or correction.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 1.7%, hot coil rose nearly 1.3%, coking coal and coke rose nearly 0.1%, and iron ore fell nearly 0.9%. In terms of hot coil, the core logic of the recent strengthening of coil prices lies in the policy of production restrictions. in the short term, domestic production limit policies are still being formulated step by step, and phased news stimulus has a strong boost to steel prices, but considering that the current coil prices are gradually approaching the May high. On the other hand, the national policy still emphasizes stabilizing prices, and the signal of policy restraint has appeared. although the follow-up volume price has the driving force to rise, the space above is very limited. at the same time, this week's production data will become a key factor in verifying production limit expectations. if the decline in production is not as expected, you can consider waiting in advance to avoid risks.
[summary of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] the iron ore is running strongly and the overall price of black series is stable and there is limited room for rise.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 2.2%, and international crude oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but closed lower this week, the oil market trend is oscillating, and the market is expected to increase oil supply, while the increase in novel coronavirus infection cases may cause many countries to re-impose blockade restrictions and depress demand. Us retail sales rose unexpectedly in June as demand for goods remained strong despite a shift in spending back to the service sector, supporting expectations of accelerated economic growth in the second quarter.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3% and Shanghai silver fell nearly 2.3%. Gold futures closed down on Friday, ending three consecutive days of gains, as the stronger dollar weakened its attractiveness and further broke away from the one-month high hit the previous trading day, but gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive week this week. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell reiterated that the Fed would keep its policy loose, pushing gold prices to an one-month high on Thursday.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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[SMM Metal Morning reference] Metal prices rise and fall each other and Lunxi brushes a new high * the impact of power cuts * Copper prices fluctuate in a short or wide range in the short term.
