What will be the trend of ferromolybdenum prices in the first half of July and then rise in the second half of July?

SMM7 March 16 News: in the first half of July, domestic ferromolybdenum prices first fell and then rose. At present, the overall market is intertwined, high-priced resources are difficult to ship, and low-priced resources are difficult to obtain. SMM expects ferromolybdenum prices in the second half of the month to be dominated by high shocks.

In the first half of July, the early ferromolybdenum market continued the downward trend at the end of June, and the domestic ferromolybdenum price once fell from 160000 yuan / base ton to about 146000 yuan / base tonn. on the one hand, it is due to the limited tender volume of ferromolybdenum in steel mills in the first week of July. leading to flat market demand. SMM learned that the total amount of ferromolybdenum bidding for steel mills from January to July is about 1800 tons, compared with about 12000 tons in June, with a weekly average of about 3000 tons. On the other hand, international molybdenum prices fell in the first week of July while some domestic holders chose profit-taking due to their own financial pressure and market forecasts, the supply of ferromolybdenum was slightly sufficient, the overall bearish sentiment in the market increased, and prices immediately fell.

Ferromolybdenum prices warmed up to a certain extent in the second week of July, on the one hand, the overall market demand began to improve. According to SMM, the total amount of bidding for domestic steel mills in the second week of July (8-15) was about 2900 tons, and the shortage of raw materials in steel mills began to invite tenders one after another, and the bidding price rose from about 146000 yuan / base ton to 155000 yuan / base ton. On the other hand, the shortage of molybdenum concentrate and rising prices support ferromolybdenum prices higher. According to SMM, as the price of 45% molybdenum concentrate remains at a low level of 2240 yuan / tonnage in the first week of July, some mining enterprises are optimistic that the future market will choose to hoard and sell goods. A molybdenum mining enterprise in Henan has postponed the auction and sale of molybdenum concentrate originally scheduled for July 2 to July 13. The originally scarce molybdenum concentrate market is even more in short supply. The price of molybdenum concentrate has gradually risen to about 2340 yuan / tonnage, which forms a strong support for the price of ferromolybdenum.

Looking forward to the second half of July, SMM believes that the current long-short game in the market, ferromolybdenum price growth has slowed down or even stagnated in recent days, and the late price may be dominated by high shock.

Negative aspects: at present, the international ferromolybdenum market is in a summer break, the terminal demand has entered a phase of light period, the market activity is not good, and the international molybdenum price has fallen from the highest US $18.3 / lb molybdenum to less than US $18 / lb molybdenum, resulting in a certain suppression of domestic prices. At the same time, at the peak of power consumption in the summer, the Henan Development and Reform Commission recently issued a power restriction notice to protect people's livelihood. At present, Henan Duodi steel mills have begun to reduce production or even stop production, which has a negative impact on the future demand for ferromolybdenum. In addition, the current ferromolybdenum price has exceeded the psychological expectations of some steel mills, and recently the phenomenon of failed bidding in steel mills has appeared one after another, increasing the bearish mood in the ferromolybdenum market.

Beneficial aspects: although there are a number of steel mills bidding in the early market, some of the main steel mills, such as Baosteel, CITIC Pacific, Nanjing Iron and Steel, have not yet entered the market. the above three steel mills are all about a month away from the last tender, and the market expects them to enter the tender in the near future, and the three steel mills may boost the demand for ferromolybdenum in the second half of the month. In addition, it is understood that recently, an environmental protection inspection team has conducted spot checks among some enterprises in Liaoning, which makes the tension of ferromolybdenum enterprises appear, and the output of ferromolybdenum may be affected to a certain extent.