SMM6 March 25: most of the outer disk metal market rose yesterday, while Lun Copper fell on Thursday for the first time this week, as conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve caused investors to worry about the timing of raising interest rates, which will dampen demand for metals. There are ups and downs in the LME metal market today. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Pb rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Lunni rose nearly 0.2%, and Lunxi was flat. On the domestic side, international copper rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 1%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 2.4%, and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 0.8%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, Biden reached a preliminary agreement with a group of Democratic and Republican senators on a $579 billion infrastructure spending plan, boosting investor optimism that the economic recovery is on a firm footing, and the US stock market rose to a record high. At night, U.S. economic data were in line with expectations, but inflation data were relatively high, which could put renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, the dollar index.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the performance of copper in the overnight period is volatile and the spot buying power is still weak.
In terms of aluminum, from a macro point of view, the data such as the number of US durable goods and jobless claims performed well in line with expectations, and the fluctuation of the US index was relatively small. Coupled with the fact that the policy was thrown into the ground in the first stage, the impact was gradually digested by the market. Pay attention to the fundamentals that the seasonal off-season of consumption is approaching, and the gradual weakening of consumption will continue to narrow the range of destocking, and the inflection point may occur in July. Domestic aluminum prices are expected to remain broadly volatile in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the extent of removing aluminum ingots from the warehouse narrowed and the off-season effect of the decline in start-up of leading aluminum processing enterprises was highlighted.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive column, above the 10-day moving average to form a pressure, the lower Bollinger Road to provide support. Overnight outer disk macro optimism led to the high operation of Shanghai zinc, but the fundamental pattern of supply and demand has not changed, is expected to limit the height of zinc price rebound, pay attention to 22000 yuan / ton first-line suppression strength.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Shanghai Zinc continues to rebound and pays attention to 22000 yuan / ton first-line suppression strength.
In terms of nickel, driven by news that Russian economy Minister Reshetnikov proposed to impose tariffs on copper and nickel from August 1, Shanghai nickel night trading broke through the previous high of 136000 resistance, an increase of 2.44%. Lenny also led other metals, closing at $18445 a tonne, up 2.02 per cent. Although the above news is inconclusive, the impact on market sentiment is still very obvious. The upward momentum of other non-ferrous items weakened yesterday. Therefore, after the news has been digested, nickel may have a slight decline in the process of adjustment. It is expected that today Shanghai Nickel will ….
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Russia proposes to increase copper and nickel tariffs to stimulate the mood of the nickel market. There are eight more plans for cooperation among the three major enterprises, Indonesia's nickel-iron production line.
In terms of black, thread rose by nearly 0.8%, hot coil by nearly 1.5%, coking coal by nearly 0.7%, coke by nearly 1.4%, iron ore by nearly 0.3%, stainless steel by nearly 1.7%. In terms of threads, this week is the second week of the comprehensive accumulation of building materials, and the year-on-year growth rates of factory and social storage have narrowed. It is not easy to judge whether the worst phase of demand is over, but it is certain that this year's accumulation cycle will be longer and the rising slope will be slower. The market has always been looking forward to the safety inspection before July 1 and the production restriction of steel mills, which can form a short-term stimulus to the market price, but the market reversal continues to strengthen the opportunity still needs a big positive stimulus. There are some structural risks to the medium-and long-term fundamentals.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] short-term fluctuations in steel prices have intensified as a whole, and they are still in shock operation.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 0.9%, and international crude oil futures prices held steady on Thursday, the highest level in nearly three years, supported by falling inventories in the United States and accelerated economic activity in Germany. Oil prices have also been bolstered by investor doubts about the future of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which could end US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.6% and Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.1%. International gold futures prices closed down on Thursday, giving up all the gains driven by the rise of US stocks in the previous trading day, but the weekly line is still up. Investors are trying to take advantage of mixed signals from Fed officials about raising interest rates and wait for more economic data to measure inflationary pressures.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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