The "rising sound" of photovoltaic silicon wafers is in urgent need of large-scale release of new production capacity.

Since the beginning of this month, the photovoltaic industry chain continues to rise: may 10, Central shares (002129, SZ) wafers of different sizes rose 0.33 yuan / wafer to 0.6 yuan / wafer, 210mm wafer has risen to 7 yuan / wafer; May 11, Tongwei shares (600438, SH) battery chip quotation rose 60.7 cents / W again.

In fact, the rising pressure of silicon material is all being transmitted to the downstream link. On April 28th, the Silicon Industry Branch released the latest transaction price of solar-grade silicon materials in China. The highest price of single crystal compound has touched 155.6 yuan / kg;, and the highest price of single crystal compact has reached 152.3 yuan / kg.

Industry analysts believe that from 2021 to 2023, polysilicon production will be in a period of rapid growth, the current pressure is mainly from downstream incremental capacity, the new balance of the market may be forced to postpone until after the large-scale release of new polysilicon production capacity.

The two giants of silicon wafers relayed to raise prices.

In the past four months of this year, the price of single crystal silicon has risen by more than 75%. According to PVInfoLink analysis, the annual average price of polysilicon is expected to exceed 130-140 yuan / kg, much higher than the average price of 76 yuan / kg last year, and there is market news that the bulk price of more than 170 yuan per kilogram has even begun to appear under the aggravation of the shortage atmosphere.

And the rising pressure of silicon material is all being transmitted to the downstream link. After successive price adjustments in March and April this year, Central shares recently announced the latest silicon wafer price this month, of which G12 quoted 7.23 yuan, an increase of 0.6 yuan compared with the last time, an increase of 9%. M6 quoted 4.495 yuan, up 0.33 yuan, or 8%. G1 quoted price 4.31 yuan, up 0.3 yuan, an increase of 7.5%.

Another wafer giant, Longji, also adjusted its price on Synchronize, announcing the price of single crystal wafers in April. G1 and M6 (170 μ m thickness) were quoted at 3.90 yuan and 4.00 yuan per wafer, while M10 (175 μ m) was quoted at 4.86 yuan per wafer, an increase of 6.58%.

For the price increase, silicon wafer companies said that slightly "innocent", Central shares told reporters that the current market of silicon material is still in short supply, and Longji shares also said that downstream silicon wafers are basically passive price increases.

For silicon prices, Tongwei shares recently said that from the current supply and demand, there is still an upward trend in 2021. On the whole, there are still differences in the time of capacity release in several links of the industrial chain. From bottoming out in the fourth quarter of last year to a rebound in prices, the current market will continue until the end of 2021.

A new energy materials industry analyst told reporters that driven by carbon peak and carbon neutralization, there is no doubt about the high-profile demeanor of the photovoltaic industry, but the silicon material is the upstream part of the industrial chain, and the price increase will lead to a passive rise in the prices of silicon wafers and battery. the impact will be more far-reaching.

Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Technology, told reporters that with the release of favorable photovoltaic policies and the gradual recovery of the global economy, photovoltaic applications are expected to grow significantly this year, but the structural overcapacity generated in the iterative process of technological upgrading and the sharp fluctuations in supply chain prices are challenges for the whole industry in the short term.

The market balance urgently needs the release of upstream production capacity.

Industry analysts believe that the price rise of silicon wafers is inseparable from downstream demand in the first place. Longji has a huge demand for shipments of its own components, and in the recent results presentation, the head of the company also revealed that some battery capacity had been shut down and reduced production due to the shortage of silicon wafers. In addition, component companies such as Trina Solar (688599, SH)) and Oriental Sunrise (300118, SZ)) are also making great efforts to lay out 210battery and module production capacity, and the downstream demand for 210wafers remains strong.

The above-mentioned industry analysts told reporters that under the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, whether it is a single industrial chain enterprise or the integrated layout of component enterprises to reduce costs, silicon wafers have entered a large-scale expansion of production capacity, and the new capacity of silicon wafers in 2021 alone has reached more than 130GW, and it is expected that the production capacity of single crystal silicon wafers will be more than 300GW, resulting in a tight shortage of silicon supply relative to downstream silicon production capacity.

As for the question of whether the price rise of silicon is sustainable, industry analysts believe that it will not. Guolian Securities pointed out that the current upstream silicon material has more than 200GW annualized nominal production capacity, the corresponding terminal 160GW demand should be sufficient.

In fact, the expansion of silicon production capacity has not stopped in recent years. Before 2020, silicon material has been in short supply for a long time, so major silicon companies have begun to expand production plans. According to the head Leopard Industrial Research Institute, Tongwei plans to achieve a silicon production capacity of 115000 to 150000 tons in 2021 and 15 to 220000 tons in 2022.

In addition, Poly Xiexin and other silicon companies have plans to open polysilicon capacity expansion. However, industry analysts told reporters that the release rate of silicon capacity is limited, there is basically no new capacity release in 2021, and the next round of production peak will be concentrated after 2022, so at least this year silicon will be in short supply.

According to the analysis, under the condition that almost all domestic polysilicon enterprises are full of production and the supply has reached a new high, the silicon material link is still in short supply, and the total forecast supply of silicon material for the whole year is sufficient to ensure the demand of the terminal global installed 160GW. It can be seen that the capacity expansion of the intermediate link of the photovoltaic industry chain is relatively advanced and excessive, if there is no active adjustment plan for the operating rate or price of the intermediate link in the short term. The new balance in the market may be forced to be delayed until after the massive release of new polysilicon capacity.