SMM Morning Comments (Apr 9): Shanghai base metals were mostly higher on softer US dollar

SHANGHAI, Apr 9 (SMM) — Nonferrous metals on the SHFE rose for the most part on Friday morning, while their counterparts on the LME saw broad losses. 

Shanghai base metals, except for lead, closed higher in overnight trading as the US dollar index fell to two-week lows. Copper gained 0.77%, aluminium added 0.29%, zinc rose 1.14%, nickel advanced 1.16% and tin firmed 0.22%, while lead shed 0.1%. 

The LME complex, except for tin, cruised higher on Thursday. Copper gained 0.89%, aluminium increased 1.15%, zinc advanced 1.06%, nickel strengthened 1.11%, and lead firmed 0.18%, while tin edged down 0.14%. 

Copper: Three-month LME copper gained 0.89% to close at $9,009.5/mt on Thursday, while the most-traded SHFE 2105 copper contract firmed 0.77% to end at 67,150 yuan/mt in overnight trading. The US Labor Department reported first-time claims for the week ended April 3 totalled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, suggesting an unbalanced recovery in the labor market. US stocks recorded new highs overnight, while the US dollar index fell to two-week lows, which boosted copper futures. LME copper is expected to trade between $8,980-9,060/mt today, and SHFE copper between 66,900-67,400 yuan/mt, while spot copper will be traded between discounts of 10 yuan/mt and premiums of 60 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium settled 1.15% higher at $2,285.5/mt on Thursday, and is expected to trade between $2,250-2,310/mt today.

The most-active SHFE 2105 aluminium contract added 0.29% to close at 17,540 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest losing 3,747 lots to 190,000 lots. It is likely to trade between 17,450-17,650 yuan/mt today.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rose 1.06% to end at $2,860.5 on Thursday, posting a three-day winning streak, with open interest rising 2,469 lots to 236,000 lots. LME zinc stocks were unchanged at 267,650 mt. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate between $2,820-2,870/mt today.

The most-liquid SHFE 2105 zinc contract settled 1.14% firmer at 22,135 yuan/mt in overnight trading, with open interest adding 4,163 lots to 88,509 lots. The May contract is likely to move between 21,700-22,200 yuan/mt today, while spot discounts for domestic 0# Shuangyan will be seen at 20-30 yuan/mt against the contract.

Lead: Three-month LME lead closed 0.18% higher at $1,985.5/mt on Thursday. Weaker US dollar supported lead prices.  

The most-traded SHFE 2105 lead contract shed 0.1% to end at 14,925 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Whether the contract could return above the five-day moving average today will be monitored.

Tin: Three-month LME tin dropped 0.14% to settle at $25,715/mt on Thursday, and is likely to fluctuate between $25,000-26,000/mt today.    

The most-active SHFE 2106 tin contract ended 0.22% higher at 183,500 yuan/mt in overnight trading. Domestic tin ore output in January-February rose 26% year on year, offsetting the supply gap caused by smaller imports. Raw materials supply is still affected by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Yunnan Ruili and shutdown of local fuming furnaces. SHFE tin is expected to move between 177,000-185,000 yuan/mt today.