5.29 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight Shanghai Aluminum main 2007 contract opened slightly higher at 13075 yuan / ton, made up the gap at night, rose slightly to 13100 yuan / ton at the opening of trading in the morning, and then fluctuated around 13150 yuan / ton range, closing at 13155 yuan / ton, up 1.08%, recording Wulianyang. Overnight Lun aluminum opened at US $1528.0 / ton, up 0.56%, with trading volume reduced to 12000 lots and positions increased to 862000 lots.
Macro: (1) overseas, the GDP of the United States in the first quarter was revised down from-4.8% to-5%, the first negative growth since the US GDP shrank by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014, and the lowest level since the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits reached 2.123 million last week, and the number of new jobless people has reached 40.767 million in the past 10 weeks, more than at any time in history and equivalent to 4% of the US labor force. On May 28, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that in view of the fact that the current situation of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in Britain has met the five testing criteria set by the government, Britain will implement the next phase of unblocking measures (Ledox) from June 1. (2) on the domestic side, Premier Li Keqiang said that the absence of a quantitative target for GDP growth this year is to seek truth from facts. If we realize the task of "six guarantees", we will achieve positive economic growth in China this year. On May 28, 2020, the people's Bank of China launched a reverse repurchase operation of 240 billion yuan in the form of interest rate bidding, with a seven-day term and a winning interest rate of 2.20%. From May 26 to May 28, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations for three consecutive days.
Fundamentals: (1) alumina, in the past two days, Shanxi and Henan markets have taken the initiative to purchase standing prices at the price of 2250 yuan / ton. in addition, there are still 2200 yuan / ton prices in the market, and the transaction range is slightly expanded (neutral); (2) inventory, May 28 SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 893000 tons, a weekly decline of 86000 tons, to the warehouse continued but slightly narrowed; Aluminum bar inventory of 77100 tons, a weekly decline of 15600 tons, mainly due to less consumption of goods, and the strength of the warehouse is OK (Lido); (3) as for aluminum bars, the spot base price in Guangdong and Shanghai rebounded, and the processing fees for aluminum bars continued to decline. The price of big bars remained around 400 yuan / ton, while the price of small bars fell to 650 yuan / ton, while the price of motor transportation fell to 600 million yuan / ton. There was a slight replenishment downstream, and trading was slightly better than the previous day (Lido).
Spot: the spot price in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 13440 and 13460 yuan / ton, the rising water is between 120 yuan / ton, the price is 100 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous day, and the spot price in Hangzhou area is between 13460 and 13470 yuan / ton. Middlemen tend to receive goods at a low price, while small traders have little turnover between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate. Downstream on-demand procurement, due to the aluminum base price rose for several days, the downstream wait-and-see attitude gradually, fear of heights is obvious, the receiving volume is not much. The overall transaction in East China is mediocre.
Summary: from a macro point of view, economic activities in some overseas areas have been restarted one after another, the domestic macro atmosphere has also continued to warm up, and the global trading atmosphere has eased somewhat; at home, the fundamentals continue to go to the warehouse to form a strong support for Shanghai aluminum. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will still be dominated by strong shocks in the short term, and the price difference will remain strong the next month. Continuous attention should be paid to the recent downstream consumption and the marginal changes of internal and external strength.
(SMM Li Hao 021Mui 51666863)
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