Macro Roundup (Nov 18)

SHANGHAI, Nov 18 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected in the day ahead.

Last weekend

The US dollar eased to a one-week low against a basket its rivals on Friday, as data showed that US retail sales rebounded more than expected in October and comments from US officials raised optimism for a US-China trade deal

The US dollar index fell to 97.96, the lowest since November 7, before it ended down 0.19% at 97.987.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that Washington and Beijing were close to a deal. His comments followed recent reports that both countries had hit an impasse over agricultural products and intellectual property rights.

Over the weekend, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer about a phase-one trade deal in a phone call. The two sides had “constructive discussions” about “each other’s core concerns” and agreed to remain in close contact, according to the report from Chinese state media.

LME base metals closed mostly lower on Friday. Tin led the losses with a 1.3% decline, nickel dropped 1.1%, lead fell 0.8% and zinc dipped 0.02%, while aluminium gained 0.6% and copper advanced 0.7%.

The SHFE complex also saw mixed performance on Friday night. Nickel tumbled 1.5%, aluminium shed 0.3%, and lead lost 0.2%, while tin edged up 0.04%, copper inched up 0.06% and zinc rose 0.1%.

US-China trade optimism boosted oil prices, while weighed on gold prices on Friday.

The US Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales across the country increased 0.3% last month, lifted by motor vehicle purchases and higher gasoline prices, reversing September’s unrevised 0.3% drop, which was the first decline in seven months. Retail sales had been expected to rebound 0.2% in October.

US industrial production dropped 0.8% in October, the largest decline since May 2018, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. It was the third decline in output in the past four months. The drop was steeper than Wall Street expectations of a 0.5% fall.

In the eurozone, consumer price inflation slowed to 0.7% on the year in October from 0.8% in September, according to preliminary Eurostat estimates published Friday. The bloc’s trade surplus grew to 18.7 billion euros in September, up from 12.6 billion euros in September 2018.

A monthly report from the International Energy Agency estimated that non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared with 1.8 million bpd in 2019, citing production from the US, Brazil, Norway and Guyana.

US energy firms last week reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, cutting 10 oil rigs in the week to November 15, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday. The total count is now 674, the lowest since April 2017.

Day ahead

The US National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) will publish its housing market index for November, while Britain’s Rightmove will release the average house seller's asking price this month.