[July 17, SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that figures released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that retail sales in the United States, known as "terrorist data," were 0.4 percent in June, 0.1 percent expected, and 0.5 percent revised to 0.4 percent. In addition, core retail sales in the United States in June were 0.4 percent month-on-month, expected 0.1 percent, and the previous value was 0.5 percent. Excluding natural gas and automobile retail sales in May, the United States expected 0.3%, and the previous value of 0.5% was revised to 0.4%. Retail sales in June were all better than expected, and the US index continued to strengthen. Although the mixed US economic data did not affect the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut this month, but the expectations of the intensity of the rate cut after that have declined.

Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the Fed was "closely monitoring" the downward risks of US economic growth and "will take appropriate action to maintain expansion". Uncertainty about the outlook has increased, especially in terms of trade development and global economic growth.

Li Keqiang, China's premier, said that while some indicators were better than expected in the first half of the year, downward pressure on the economy had increased and the government would fine-tune its policies in due course.

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead strong upward, shippers shipping enthusiasm increased, part of it has been converted to discount quotation, among them, Shanghai market Jinsha lead to 1908 contract water 50 yuan / ton quotation, Mu Leng lead to 1908 contract flat water quotation, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jinli, Wanyang, copper crown lead to 1908 contract discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui quotation, in addition, due to the expansion of the current base difference, traders receive goods more actively than yesterday. On the other hand, the mainstream quotation of the bulk order of the original lead refinery pastes the average price of SMM1# lead to 50 yuan / ton to flat water. Recycled lead, reduced lead market supplies are generally scarce, so the market transaction price rose generally, the increase and lead price is not much, and regenerated refined lead market trading has not seen a significant improvement, renewable refined lead mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead discount 100yuan / ton factory; downstream battery market consumption is flat, storage enterprises afraid of high careful mining, upstream and downstream direct counterpart trading is not light.

Lead price:

Lun lead closed in Qilianyang, but in recent days, the upward speed slowed down, high pressure gradually reflected, there is the possibility of a short-term pullback; Shanghai lead walked to the current position, above feel a stronger throwing pressure, today is more critical, if the high position can not stand firm, will attract short again;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to rise 100 yuan to 150 yuan per ton today.