[daily Review of SMM Black Futures] 20190716: the gap between supply and demand is difficult to make up, and the price of ore has reached a new high.

In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed 7 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 4037 yuan / ton; HC1910 was the same as the previous trading day, closing at 3898 yuan / ton; I1909 closed 10 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 905 yuan / ton; J1909 closed 6 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 2173.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 2.87 million transactions, down 40, 000 to 2.48 million; I1909, 2.07 million, down 54000 to 1.34 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 posted a net outflow of 115 million yuan today; and I1909 recorded a net outflow of 279 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. Boosted by the macro positive, yesterday's black chain as a whole upward, night trading continues to open high, continue to rise in the day. Iron ore is still the strongest variety in the black industrial chain, even if CISA yelled and set up a working group on imported minerals, but none of them affected the strong return of ore prices. It was reported that BHP Billiton's reduction in Jinbuba grade led to a reduction in deliverables, which had a positive impact on the ore. In addition, the fundamentals of the ore itself are still strong. Today, the iron ore contracts 09 and 01 strongly broke through the previous highs, although they fell back at the end of the day. However, the overall upward trend of shock does not change, continue to do more on the low; In terms of coke, coking plants in Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have begun to rise. With the approach of the "second Youth Club", the production limit of environmental protection in Shanxi is expected to be substantially strengthened. Coke has recently been affected by the strength of coking coal, the spot rise, and the price of coke enterprises. the futures price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is expected that there will still be room for strength in the later period. In contrast, the trend of threads and hot rolls is relatively weak. After pushing up yesterday, the disk today is dominated by concussion. From a fundamental point of view, under environmental protection and production restrictions, production has been substantially reduced. On the demand side, the market is generally worried about a decline in real estate in the later period. However, from yesterday's real estate data, it exceeded market expectations. In the short term, real estate demand may still have a certain degree of continuity. At the same time, With the strong support of superimposed costs, steel prices do not have the basis of a trend decline, and are still dominated by strong operation. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3950, 4100); I1909 contract range (850950), middle line multiple single hold, short-term high throw low suction. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.