[daily Review of SMM Black Futures] 20190 617: the market has cooled down as a result of the restrictions imposed by the bourse.

In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed down 51 yuan / ton to close at 3704 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed down 43 yuan / ton at 3585 yuan / ton; I1909 closed down 15 yuan / ton at 768.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 44 yuan / ton at 2064.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 2.97 million transactions, an increase of 148000 to 2.68 million; I1909, 2.18 million, with a decrease of 36300 to 1.85 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 336 million yuan; and the net outflow of I1909 funds was 450 million yuan. Viewpoint: low shock. On the evening of the 14th, Dashang announced that in order to further curb potential excessive speculation, effectively guard against risks, and ensure the stable operation of the market, starting from the settlement on June 18, 2019, the limit range and the minimum trading margin standard for the I1909 contract will be adjusted to 8% and 10%, respectively. The move cooled the market; coupled with the looming inflection point in inventory data last week, confirming expectations that demand is being fulfilled in the off-season, billet prices fell by 50 yuan per ton and 30 yuan per ton respectively over the weekend, the lowest point in nearly three months, and the market pessimism spread again. At present, the profits of the long process continue to shrink, some short process enterprises have begun to lose money, and the production reduction will gradually increase in the later period, or have a positive effect on the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand; the ore port inventory still maintains a downward trend, but the decline of blast furnace operating rate also suppresses the demand for ore to a certain extent, coupled with the increase of margin, so that there is still a short-term pullback pressure on the ore. In terms of coke, with the continuous weakening of steel prices, at the same time, the coke stock of coke itself has been reasonably high, and the mood of cracking down on coke prices in steel mills is getting thicker and thicker. Some of the mainstream steel mills in Tangshan have announced that they will lower the purchasing price of coke from tomorrow, with a drop of 100 yuan per ton, which also has a certain adverse impact on the market. Whether from the emotional, fundamental point of view, the current market short is still dominant, but taking into account the negative factors have been reflected in the disk, and the technology has fallen to an important support level, is expected to continue to decline with limited space, or show a low concussion trend. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (680800), profit gap order can continue to hold, but do not recommend to pursue short, pay attention to environmental policy news, if the intensity is increased, then the empty order reduction or departure wait and see. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.