[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 611: black returns strongly, iron ore multiple contracts rise by the limit

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 116 yuan / ton to close at 3833 yuan / ton; HC1910 rose 79 yuan / ton to close at 3655 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 31 yuan / ton to close at 760.5 yuan / ton; J1909 rose 82 yuan / ton to close at 2208.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 5 million transactions, with positions reduced by 81000 to 2.62 million; I1909, 2.48 million, increased by 161000 to 1.68 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 2.64 million yuan; and the net inflow of I1909 funds was 421 million yuan. Point of view: concussion upward. Today, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the Circular on the issuance of Special Bonds for Local governments and the financing of supporting projects, allowing some major projects to use special bonds as project capital. at a time when the economy is facing downward pressure and the policy of countercyclical adjustment has been continuously launched, the news has triggered a rise in market expectations for infrastructure expansion, with the stock market and the futures market resonating upward. The net inflow of northbound funds into the market again was 7.307 billion, which also brought a large amount of incremental capital to the market, which contributed to the stabilization and recovery of the stock market. News has emerged from the iron ore supply side that, in addition to Vale, which will spend US $1.9 billion to shut down nine tailings dams in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, it has also been reported that the PB block has been affected by previous hurricanes, resulting in quality problems that may not be able to deliver the long-term trade agreement in the next two months. Therefore, Rio Tinto will most likely cancel the small-and long-term agreement in July and August, and the amount of spot investment will be reduced. Macro positive superimposed supply contraction expectations, ore with the exception of 1906 and 2004 two contracts, the other 10 contracts are sealed up the limit. From the end of the material side, the recent trend of increasing supply has been alleviated, demand is boosted by the counter-cyclical adjustment policy, or not weak in the off-season; the contradiction between ore supply and demand is difficult to alleviate effectively in the short term; bicoke is affected by the mine accident, the security check is expected to be strengthened, and the price is also supported. Black prices are expected to still have room to go up. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3750, 3950); I1909 contract range (680800), multiple single holding. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.