[SMM Black Futures Review] 201903: trade tensions rise and Black decline continues

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 fell 43 yuan / ton to close at 3707 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, while HC1910 closed down 48 yuan / ton at 3577 yuan / ton. I1909 closed down 18 yuan per ton to close at 709 yuan per ton, while J1909 closed down 42 yuan per ton at 2098 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions increased by 29900 to 2.57 million, while that of I1909 decreased by 74100 to 1.58 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1910 today was 1.24 million yuan. I1909 net outflow of funds was $659 million. Viewpoint: weak operation. On the first trading day of June, due to the warming of global trade tensions, the commodity market was dismal, crude oil, cotton, and Zheng alcohol fell by the limit, many varieties hit a new low, and the Wenhua commodity index recorded the biggest daily decline of the year. Black is also difficult to survive. Continue the decline. RB1910 went down unilaterally within the day, and last week the capacity utilization rate of steel mills hit a new high of 71.69 percent, the trading volume of building materials continued to shrink, and demand fell, coupled with the fact that the official manufacturing PMI data hit a three-month low, sparking concerns in the market about increased downward pressure on the economy. The short-term empty side still has the advantage. Under the price fall last week, the rebar base difference has expanded to about 430, and the price is close to the cost of electric furnace steel, and the further downward space is expected to be limited. In terms of iron ore, domestic port stocks fell again last week and reached the lowest level since February 2017, and steel mills started to maintain a high level of rigid demand for ore and supported prices. It is expected to stabilize after a short period of emotional catharsis. Coke, coke enterprises, steel plant inventory continues to decline, port inventory has increased, but due to the port to the south, so the impact on coke spot is small, the overall fundamentals are still supported, should not be overly bearish. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (680780), high empty order can be held, but do not recommend chasing short, patiently wait for the long opportunity to stop falling and stabilize. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.