SMM Evening Comments (May 14)

SHANGHAI, May 14 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals decreased across the board as nickel led losses and dropped 0.9%. Lead fell 0.87%, zinc dipped 0.55%, tin lost 0.51%, copper dipped 0.48%, and aluminium edged down. 

Declines in the ferrous complex expanded as coke slid 2.61%. Rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and hot-rolled coil fell over 1%. 

Copper: Pressure from shorts weighed the most-traded SHFE July contract below several moving averages today, with the KDJ indicator expanding downwards. The contract suffered a steeper decline in the afternoon and dipped to lows around 47,490 yuan/mt. It closed 0.48% lower on the day at 47,490 yuan/mt, with an influx of 147 million yuan of capital across all SHFE copper contracts, the greatest among base metals. We see the July contract testing support from 47,400 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: Longs exited after the most-active SHFE June contract jumped to a high of 14,260 yuan/mt in early trades. This drove it to a low of 14,165 yuan/mt, before it ended 0.25% lower on the day at 14,190 yuan/mt. Open interests shrank 14,664 lots to 204,000 lots, standing only some 5,000 lots higher than the SHFE July contract. The dominant contract may shift to the July contract tomorrow. The 1906 contract may trade between 14,160-14,260 yuan/mt tonight as the MACD green line shortened.

Zinc: The SHFE July contract found support from the daily moving average twice in the morning, before rising longs pulled it to a high of 20,745 yuan/mt. Higher premiums in the spot market provided momentum for the futures contracts. The contract is expected to test resistance from the five-day moving average tonight. 

Nickel: The SHFE July contract lost gains from this morning as shorts entered after a lower US dollar lifted it to at a high of 97,370 yuan/mt. It hovered around 95,600 yuan/mt in the afternoon and finished lower on the day at 95,650 yuan/mt. As the MACD green line shortened, the contract may test support from the five-day moving average tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1906 contract failed to regain support from the 16,000 yuan/mt level, as caution around the macroeconomic development and a seasonal lull drove shorts to enter. It ended 0.87% lower on the day at 15,890 yuan/mt, with support from 15,830 yuan/mt. A lower LME lead is likely to keep its SHFE counterpart weak tonight. 

Tin: The most-active SHFE September contract edged lower from the previous session as it extended the rangebound trend at lows and slid 0.51% to end at 145,400 yuan/mt. It tested the five-day moving average today. Support below is seen at 145,000 yuan/mt tonight.